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WSHazel

(283 posts)

13. One qualifier

Reply to WSHazel (Original post)

Thu Oct 31, 2024, 12:45 PM

Oct 31

Stuart Stevens, among others, do not like extrapolating early voter data. I think he was right for his day, but many more people vote early than 20 years ago, so the early voter universe should behave more statistically consistent with the overall voter population. I also understand the argument that 2020 is a bad proxy for this year, because the 2020 early vote was so heavily weighted Democrat, so it was clear that Biden was pulling votes forward with the early vote and Trump still had a lot of votes left to get.

This year the early vote has a slight Republican lean, which means that Harris still has a lot of votes left to get, and Trump is going to start running out of runway. Many of the polls are treating the 2024 early vote just like the 2020 early vote, even though their composition is entirely different.

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CNN GA and NC update [View all] WSHazel Oct 31 OP

6% and 7% is not a narrow lead. pwb Oct 31 #1

If the GA data is correct, Trump would need to win on election day by more than 10 to have a shot Johnny2X2X Oct 31 #8

Polling before and after Hieronymus Phact Oct 31 #12

OMG! I know that's the first thing I noticed that his HUGE! Coexist Oct 31 #11

Came to say it. Seconded. mahina Oct 31 #20

So true Smooth155 Nov 1 #31

No chance of winning by 10% Polybius Nov 1 #35

No, the comment was Trump Deminpenn Nov 1 #37

When do they start counting the early vote/absentee ballots? Novara Oct 31 #2

GA will be quick.... not sure about NC getagrip_already Oct 31 #9

I Think... GB_RN Oct 31 #16

Here In NC... GB_RN Oct 31 #15

In most states it is cou ted before election day and reported almost immediately after polls close ColinC Oct 31 #28

After the 2020 election, PA Deminpenn Nov 1 #38

This message was self-deleted by its author ColinC Nov 1 #39

This is great news! ColinC Nov 1 #40

another Dems in Disarray WhiteTara Oct 31 #3

why ask why? Always about the money derived from democratsruletheday Nov 1 #32

Oh. My mind hasn't really WhiteTara Nov 1 #33

lol...greeeeeeeeeeed democratsruletheday Nov 1 #34

What you said. sinkingfeeling Oct 31 #4

A seven point lead is huge with that much volume JT45242 Oct 31 #5

Nbc site breaks it down for some demographics SheltieLover Oct 31 #26

Let's "narrowly" beat that orange mfer awesomerwb1 Oct 31 #6

Yes that isn't a narrow lead, but how would they know? Those states JohnSJ Oct 31 #7

They ask people who already voted how they voted ColinC Oct 31 #29

Thanks. I hope that is valid and they are being honest. JohnSJ Oct 31 #30

NC voter registration statistics from the NCSBE littlemissmartypants Oct 31 #10

A lot of those "unaffiliated voters" are lined with a party. mwooldri Oct 31 #14

One qualifier WSHazel Oct 31 #13

CNN with a characterization of moniss Oct 31 #17

I've been calling the MSM "Plutocracy Pravda" and "CorpoPravda" for years. nt hvn_nbr_2 Oct 31 #22

PEOPLE: That lead IS NARROW. Why? Because more Dems than Repubs vote early. Potentially a lot more. jvill Oct 31 #18

More REPUBS have voted early in both NC and GA WSHazel Oct 31 #19

It's a wide narrow. Strelnikov_ Oct 31 #21

"...narrowly by a 7% margin"? WTAF, can the gotta-keep-the-horserace-in-play get any stupider? n/t TygrBright Oct 31 #23

Only in American MSM... WinstonSmith4740 Oct 31 #24

CNN is so fucking partisan for f'ing GOP assholes, it is disgusting... Demsrule86 Oct 31 #25

I heard first thing this am, on MSNBC Bev54 Oct 31 #27

I think they mean narrow for early voting Polybius Nov 1 #36

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