We will win them by 10%. IMO.

She has built a big lead, we'll see if it can hold.

The thing about having already voted is that it's 100% concrete where as likely voters will still be some people not showing on election day.

What will you do?
Is very different from
What did you do?

When I read this, I was like since when is a 6-to-7-point lead considered narrow

The vast majority of the latest voters will be Republicans, so that 6% and 7% lead will shrink, not expand.

would have to win election day voters by 10 pts to have a chance at winning.

We are not likely to know who won on election day. Some states won't begin counting mail in ballots until election day, some allow for them to be received after elections day (postmarked by election day), etc.

Unless it's a blowout, we probably won't know for several days.

GA made some changes after 2016 that should speed up reporting. Unless it was mucked with by the new election board.

Likewise, FL will be quick. We should know both the same night.

If we get either, put a fork in him.

That the state’s court system has put the kibosh on their attempts to make things difficult and allow for shenanigans.

If I’m not mistaken and remember correctly, they are counted as they are cast: We use optical scan ballots and you put in the scanner when you’re done marking it. The totals aren’t available for submission until Election Night, however.

Pennsylvania and Wisconsin I think are two exceptions.

legislature passed a bill, signed by our D gov, that mandates continuous counting of mail ballots.

Mail ballots can't be opened until election day, but some counties could bring election workers in early to begin the process. I'm sure some counties have scheduled shifts for the continuous count mandate.

Hopefully it speeds things up substantially

Narrow lead, my democratic ass. Why do they do these things? Really. Why?

clicks. Lots and LOTS of clicks.

latched onto the new monetization of the internet.

same as it ever was

If you had a poll with that many people the MOE would be tiny.

Would love to see racial and gender breakdown.

Plus the line from another post "we're all Puerto Rican now."

Reminds of the comedian who talked about growing up and being asked "what kind of Mexican are you?" When white or black people think all Hispanic heritages are part of Mexico. Might have been fluffy or someone from the 80s...

Someone posted link here a couple of days ago.

by 10 points.

JFC

do not announce the results until after the polls close?

I don’t trust the polls or their sampling

Of note: Unaffiliated voters make up the largest group followed by the Democratic group and then Republicans.

This unaffiliated voters is a Democrat in disguise. It's so that I can cross over and ratfuck the Republican primary if needs be.

Stuart Stevens, among others, do not like extrapolating early voter data. I think he was right for his day, but many more people vote early than 20 years ago, so the early voter universe should behave more statistically consistent with the overall voter population. I also understand the argument that 2020 is a bad proxy for this year, because the 2020 early vote was so heavily weighted Democrat, so it was clear that Biden was pulling votes forward with the early vote and Trump still had a lot of votes left to get.

This year the early vote has a slight Republican lean, which means that Harris still has a lot of votes left to get, and Trump is going to start running out of runway. Many of the polls are treating the 2024 early vote just like the 2020 early vote, even though their composition is entirely different.

events that would make Pravda blush.

We don’t know for sure because there is no baseline to

Actually, Republicans are outvoting Democrats in the early vote in AZ, NC, GA and NV this year. Democrats have modest leads by party ID in WI and MI early vote. Democrats have a big lead by Party ID in PA, but the early vote will probably not be a huge factor in that race, likely around 25-30% of the total vote.

Despite more Republicans than Democrats having voted in NC and GA, early exits are showing Harris with a sizable lead. A lot can change between now and election day, but this is a very promising development.

(Unbelievable)

Seriously, CNN? Can you be any more obvious? These are not "narrow" leads. I'll be willing to bet if the Rethugs were leading by that much, it would be reported as an "insurmountable lead", and that Harris should just pack it up.

6 and 7 is not close. It is breaking Kamala Harris's favor. Now we are seeing a point where they can't really hide it. And some will knock it off to save their reputation when the blue wave hits. Lebron just endorsed Kamala Harris!

Ana Cabrerra (spelling?) that Harris was winning by 8% and I did not hear what state, wasn’t reallly listening well. What I did hear her say was that 8% was still within the margin of error. Since when is 8% within the margin of error? WTF are they even talking about, that is a real stretch to keep the horse race alive.

In 2020, Democrats had a 20 point lead in early voting, then on Election Day Republicans all came out to vote.