So I am suspicious of Chapman's statements. Yes - Trump has tried to calm and game the markets with lies and Monday morning BS but major professional traders are not relying on his statements. They may react to a more general fact which is that Trump's texts and statements show that he wants to make a deal on Hormuz but they aren't taking his word for it that the Strait is open or closed or anything else.
The Strait aside for a moment, more oil supply becomes available as prices rises. This is because dirtier oil costs more to refine and some sources may cost more to ship due to distance or other logistics but when the price of oil goes above $80 these higher cost sources can operate profitably. Oil hit $100 and this extra supply kicked in and kept it from going any higher.
Futures are priced as high as the market will push them. Countries and pro traders know how much is oil in reserves and what all the potential scenarios are going forward. If Chapman said that continued Hormuz issues are not yet priced in then he is claiming not to understand his own business. Everything is priced in. That's what futures are.
Hormuz is a bottleneck for fertilizers and other commodities which are not as elastic or competitive as oil. That seems like the bigger risk to the world economy.
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