So I am suspicious of Chapman's statements. Yes - Trump has tried to calm and game the markets with lies and Monday morning BS but major professional traders are not relying on his statements. They may react to a more general fact which is that Trump's texts and statements show that he wants to make a deal on Hormuz but they aren't taking his word for it that the Strait is open or closed or anything else.

The Strait aside for a moment, more oil supply becomes available as prices rises. This is because dirtier oil costs more to refine and some sources may cost more to ship due to distance or other logistics but when the price of oil goes above $80 these higher cost sources can operate profitably. Oil hit $100 and this extra supply kicked in and kept it from going any higher.

Futures are priced as high as the market will push them. Countries and pro traders know how much is oil in reserves and what all the potential scenarios are going forward. If Chapman said that continued Hormuz issues are not yet priced in then he is claiming not to understand his own business. Everything is priced in. That's what futures are.

Hormuz is a bottleneck for fertilizers and other commodities which are not as elastic or competitive as oil. That seems like the bigger risk to the world economy.

Trump asked for a bribe from the oil companies. They gave it to him. Seems like collusion.

Article details how Exxon keeps telling pro traders that prices should be even higher. They don't seem to believe him.

He saying they can’t hold water for Trump much longer.

lol no it isn't. There's expectation of a deal that isn't going to happen.

who have handled billion dollar trades for entire careers are all now just believing whatever Trump says? Like traders in Singapore are glued to Fox News with the subtitles turned on?

Pepsi, United Airlines, UPS and all the other major companies for whom gasoline prices are a large percentage of operating costs, have their own trading desks. They hedge both ways. They price in every possibility, not just upside or downside. Exxon wants them to shift that balance more toward the upside. By hedging the traders don't have to believe Exxon or Trump and they don't have to predict the future with 100% accuracy. It is like if they were betting on a coin flip and bet on both heads and tails -- they won't make any net profit on the bets but they will "win" in the sense that their companies will have oil in August. Their job is to minimize exposure to the risk of price fluctuations.

The price of futures today reflects everything that is known today. That includes the risk that the situation with the Strait gets worse or stays bad longer.

Zero

If I bet on heads and tails then it doesn't matter if I can predict which will come up.

Once the US starts pretending to be concerned about how many protestors are getting killed in a country with oil, we all know what is coming next. They attacked Iran in 2025. Negotiated in February 2026. Moved more air and naval assets to the Gulf. It was not hard to see what was coming. Everyone predicted he would attack Iran.

February 26, 2026 -- Two days prior to the attack: