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TwilightZone

(28,834 posts)

1. It can tell us it's one data point in a sea of them.

Reply to Rhiannon12866 (Original post)

Mon Nov 4, 2024, 07:29 PM

Nov 4

The campaign is downplaying the poll and saying not to read too much into it.

That's basically the approach I'm taking. Would it be great if she won Iowa? Of course. Would it be a shock? Not really -- the race had already shifted from +18 Trump before Biden withdrew to +4 Trump in September, so the trend appears to have been a thing for a while.

I think it's only surprising now because so few polls have been done in Iowa. Had there been regular polls, It might not be so surprising.

And, of course, it could prove not to be indicative of anything. We'll know soon.

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Rhiannon12866 Bluetus

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Highlight:

'It's a signal': What a poll out of Iowa can and cannot tell us about the election - Deadline - MSNBC [View all] Rhiannon12866 Nov 4 OP

It can tell us it's one data point in a sea of them. TwilightZone Nov 4 #1

It would be no more surprising than the Kansas vote Bluetus Nov 4 #2