Facing Ukraine's Exhaustion - Good Times Bad Times (The 20 Report) [View all]

Summary of Ukraine-Russia Conflict Analysis (Late 2025)

Overall Situation

Ukraine is approaching exhaustion after nearly 4 years of war, while Russia maintains strategic initiative despite economic difficulties. Peace negotiations have failed to produce breakthroughs as Moscow senses Ukraine's vulnerability and believes it can extract better terms by continuing the conflict.

Key Battlefield Developments

Russian Advances:

• Capturing 400-500 km² per month since June 2025
• Fighting underway for control of 8 Ukrainian cities
• 150-200 daily assault actions with ~200 glide bombs dropped daily
• Major territorial gains in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts (30+ km advances)
• Cities under pressure: Huliaipole, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Chasiv Yar, Kupiansk, Vuhledar, and others

Ukrainian Position:

• Largely defensive posture with no major offensive operations in 2025
• Shifted focus to air strikes on Russian energy infrastructure (limited frontline impact)
• Accelerating pace of territorial losses

Critical Ukrainian Weaknesses

Manpower Crisis:

• About 22,000 desertions monthly (October 2025)
• Failed mobilization relying on forced "busification" (street conscription)
• Average frontline soldier age: 47 years
• Defensive lines severely understaffed with gaps exploited by Russian infiltration

Systemic Problems:

• False reporting culture distorting reality from front to headquarters
• Poor command coordination and information flow
• Deployment of poorly trained territorial defense units
• Drone-centric defense proving insufficient against infantry infiltration tactics

Russian Tactical Advantages:

• Small unit infiltration through porous defensive lines
• Air superiority with thousands of glide bombs monthly
• Superior artillery and FPV drone production now matching Ukraine's
• Elite "Rubicon" drone unit targeting Ukrainian UAV operators
• Fiber-optic drone usage surpassing Ukraine's capabilities

Infrastructure Damage

Russia intensified energy infrastructure strikes with 10,000+ drones and 470 missiles (October-early December), achieving:
• 50% missile hit rate, 20% drone effectiveness
• Modernized ballistic missiles penetrating Patriot defenses (interception rates dropped from 37% to 6%)
• Extended range glide bombs now reaching Zaporizhzhia
• Critical damage to power plants and nuclear facility substations

Outlook

The analysis predicts continued Russian escalation rather than ceasefire, with Moscow leveraging battlefield advantage to improve negotiating position. No winter slowdown expected; operational momentum may accelerate further, with potential cascading collapse of Ukrainian defensive lines threatening major logistics hubs.