Is the White House trying to engineer a recession? This Wall Street pro explains the vision

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20250305148/is-the-white-house-trying-to-engineer-a-recession-this-wall-street-pro-explains-the-vision
(via MorningStar)
Provided by Dow Jones Mar 5, 2025
By Steve Goldstein

Traders are starting to price in the possibility that the U.S. economy might fall into a recession- and one Wall Street veteran says that might actually be the Trump's administration's plans.

Charlie McElligott, a strategist at Nomura dubbed Wall Street's most wired analyst by the Financial Times for his manic missives that are focused on the options market, laid out the argument in a note to clients.

He said the Trump administration needs an engineered recession to cause a growth slowdown and disinflation that will translate into Fed rate cuts and a meaningfully weaker U.S. dollar for the next phase of his economic agenda.

[...]

McElligott said there's almost nothing Trump can say right now to calm markets unless he completely backed down on policy. He said a Trump put - a floor under which the White House would be spurred into action to boost the stock markets - is priced far below current levels.