Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News Editorials & Other Articles General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

progree

(12,713 posts)
2. No October reading so no month-to-month comparisons - not a problem
Thu Dec 18, 2025, 07:51 AM
Thursday
Thursday's report will mark the first official inflation read since September, after the BLS opted to cancel the October report in light of the US government shutdown. This means November's reading will not have month-on-month comparisons for the headline and core CPI figures.

No problem. There will be an index number for September, and an index number for November, and one can look at the 2-month increase and calculate an average month-over-month increase for the period. And one can annualize those too.

News report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
CPI: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
Core CPI: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E

====================================================

The November jobs report was released on Tuesday, showing more jobs were created last month than expected, while the unemployment rate hit a four-year high.

JFC, what a horrible, misleading, and awful summary.

It left out that the previous month, October had a 105,000 job LOSS,

and that net job creation was only 67k total over the last 3 months, an average of only 22.3k/month

and that net job creation was only 119k total over the last 7 months, an average of only 17.0k/month

The job creation in November, +64k, although it may have been above some expectations, is pretty puny.

What's more, November will be revised in the December report (due Jan 9) and revised again in the February report. Given past recent revision trends, these are highly likely to be downward revisions.

Here is the data series:
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

The second part of the summary, "the unemployment rate hit a four-year high" is fine. It increased from 4.4% in September to 4.6% in November. Do I give a fafu what it was in October? No.

Recommendations

1 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

Latest Discussions»Issue Forums»Economy»Inflation expected to rem...»Reply #2