United Kingdom

I think it's not a stretch to see a pattern of tactical voting here, which mirrors some earlier by-election results, e.g. in Wales.

The presence of the Greens seems to have given an option to people who aren't inclined to support Labour, but want to keep Reform from gaining a majority. I'd hoped to see that pattern continue after Caerphilly last year, where Plaid Cymru were the beneficiaries.

Although turnout was the same as 2024, it would be interesting to see some polling breakdown of changes in who actually voted - e.g., were they new voters, or as a superficial reading of the percentage swings might suggest, folks who jumped ship to the Greens from Labour?

I also wonder how things would have looked if Andy Burnham hadn't been excluded so clumsily and controversially by Labour.

Given how by-elections and council elections (the rough UK equivalent of US midterms in terms of serving as bellwethers) tend to pan out for the party in government, an anti-incumbent swing might not be unexpected, though perhaps not to this extent.

If nothing else, it's another example of Reform underperforming compared to some of the fantastical and depressing polling that's been doing the rounds. Runners-up don't get prizes.