Alberta's rising COVID-19 cases due to faulty modelling and government inaction, experts say [View all]

Alberta's plan to lift all pandemic restrictions and precautions appears to have been based on a scenario rooted more in wishful optimism and political expediency than obvious scientific evidence, say experts in infectious diseases and pandemic modelling.

But they say the problem was compounded as Premier Jason Kenney and Dr. Deena Hinshaw, the chief medical officer of health, failed to reimpose measures despite the steady rise of COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations through the summer.

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"The bottom line is that people are going to die and it is really tragic — but it is also infuriating, because this was all entirely preventable."

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According to Kenney and Hinshaw, the moves were based on data from the United Kingdom showing that high vaccination rates had "decoupled" infections from severe outcomes, which in turn had resulted in much lower rates of hospitalization.

But both Schwartz and Dean Karlen, a physics professor and expert in modelling at the University of Victoria, said Alberta's reliance on the U.K. experience made little sense.

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https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-covid-19-modelling-1.6168948