Pennsylvania

But they can say for sure that certain zipcodes have a higher percentage of minorities, thus assumptions for those voters have been made. Rural counties don't have enough minority voters to make a difference. Another thing is that rural voters are far less likely to request mailed ballots.

I've voted by mail in every election since 2020 and I can say for sure that it's easy to miss the instructions (or be confused by them). There's too much info on the outside envelope and it's all in 8 point type. Whoever designed that ballot envelope is practically daring us to get it wrong. "Oh look, we fooled another one! In the circular file it goes."