Struggling Farmers Are Key to Trump's Hopes in Minnesota [View all]

HENDERSON, Minn.—Doug Wenner can’t remember a tougher year to be a farmer.

Record rainfall made it difficult to plant and harvest his crops. The trade war with China is now a factor keeping prices too low for him to make a profit on what he grew. Many farmers in the rural Midwest are frustrated with President Trump’s trade policies. Yet in southern Minnesota, many who voted for him in 2016 plan to support him again next year, which would be key for Mr. Trump as he hopes to flip a state he narrowly lost in 2016.

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“There is a real chance Trump could win this,” said Ken Martin, chairman of the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party, which is affiliated with national Democrats. He said he believes many farmers are standing by the president. “It gives me some concern that while they’re suffering they’re going to grin and bear it,” he said. Mr. Martin said the Trump campaign is outspending Democrats by 4 to 1 on digital ads in Minnesota and has 20 paid staffers and four offices, a stronger push than he has ever seen by a Republican presidential candidate at this point in the campaign. The Minneapolis-St. Paul region, where Mr. Trump badly lost to Hillary Clinton in 2016, accounts for more than half of the state’s voters, said David Schultz, a professor of political science at Hamline University in St. Paul. But turnout tends to be higher among rural voters, which generally back Mr. Trump. “Democrats have been in denial for a long time that this is a state that’s on the edge of flipping,” he said.

Some farmers said they oppose the impeachment inquiry into the president and that Democrats in Congress deserve some blame on trade for not yet approving a deal the administration has negotiated with Mexico and Canada to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement—a delay they say is hampering agricultural exports. This week, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said a deal on the trade pact could be announced soon. While labor groups including the International Brotherhood of Teamsters said it is an improvement over Nafta, the new deal has been widely criticized for not having stronger enforcement provisions to prevent U.S. companies from moving across the border.

Mr. Anderson and others point out that prices for corn and soybeans had been depressed for several years before China slapped retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural products earlier this year. He said the African swine fever decimating hogs in China is also killing demand for grain the country imports. At the same time, a decision to grant waivers to oil refineries to use less ethanol has also angered many farmers, who see the move as cutting demand for corn and further hurting prices.

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There was a 24% increase in farmers filing for bankruptcy in the 12-month period ended in September, compared with the prior year, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. Joel Schreurs, a board member of the American Soybean Association said most Minnesota farmers he has spoken to will vote for President Trump again... Outside Henderson, Frank Grimm, 68, said he isn’t sure if he will vote for Mr. Trump a second time. He is down to farming about 100 acres. Walking through a barn where he is raising 26 calves, he said Mr. Trump was wrong to start a trade war but that he doesn’t like any Democratic candidates. “I am undecided,” he said. “I don’t see a Democrat that is going to be viable against him.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/struggling-farmers-are-key-to-trumps-hopes-in-minnesota-11573880460 (paid subscription)