Iowa

The same poll almost exactly four years ago showed Trump up by one point. Their final poll just before the election showed him up by 7 points. Trump ended up winning the state by eight points and the Des Moines Register was the only firm to call it correctly (the rest of the pack essentially calling the race a tossup).

So yes - It isn't a state that we were likely to win this time anyway... and yes, this is the only poll there so far this cycle... but 18 points is still massive.