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Horizontal red lines drawn at the Fed's 2% target

PCE May month-over-month: +0.4%;; 12 months: 4.1%
(Actually the month-over-month was +0.44983% before round-off, so it was just a tiny bit below where it would have rounded up to +0.5%)

CORE PCE: May month-over-month: +0.3%;; 12 months: 3.4%,
6/25/26
SOURCE URLS: 6/25/26 release: https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income
. . . CURRENT RELEASE - https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-may-2026
. . . PCE DATA SERIES: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI
. . . CORE PCE DATA SERIES: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/PCEPILFE

Percent increases, seasonally adjusted numbers, ANNUALIZED, over the past month, the past 3 months, and the past 12 months

1 mo 3 mo 12mo
---- ---- ----
5.5% 6.3% 4.1% Regular PCE (includes food & energy)
3.9% 3.5% 3.4% Core PCE (does not have food nor energy

2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Federal Reserve Target

REGULAR "ALL ITEMS" PCE


CORE PCE (Does Not Include Food Nor Energy)


(These are calculated using the actual index values, as are my graphs)

As usual, I prefer to present annualized figures so they can be compared to the Fed's target and to different-length time periods

The CORE PCE is the Federal Reserve's favorite gauge for forecasting FUTURE inflation.