There is a 75% chance the 2026-2030 five-year mean will exceed 1.5C above the 1950-1990 average, scientists say

Rebecca Speare-Cole
Thursday 28 May 2026 06:45 BST

Global temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels in the next five years, with the annual average potentially reaching as high as 1.9C above pre-industrial levels, scientists have found.

New UN climate predictions released on Thursday suggest mean annual temperatures near the earth’s surface over the years 2026-2030 will range from 1.3C to 1.9C above the 1850-1900 average.

The analysis from the UN’s World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the UK’s Met Office finds an 86 per cent chance that one year between now and 2030 will break the record for the warmest year.

It comes after 2024’s record temperatures broke – temporarily at least – the 1.5C threshold to which countries have agreed to limit global warming to avoid its most dangerous impacts.

…

New report suggests more global temperature records ahead

Press Release
28 May 2026

Geneva, Switzerland (WMO) - Global average temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels in the next five years, with Arctic temperature anomalies expected to continue to be higher than the global mean, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), produced by the UK’s Met Office.

…

Annual global mean near-surface temperatures during 2026–2030 are predicted to range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850-1900 average. It is likely (86% chance) that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record, according to the update.

It is very likely (91% chance) that the global mean near-surface temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average levels for at least one year between 2026 and 2030. This level was also temporarily exceeded in 2024, when the global average surface temperature was about 1.55 °C above the pre-industrial baseline.

It is likely (75% chance) that the 2026-2030 five-year mean will exceed 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average. It is considered exceptionally unlikely (less than 1%) that any single year will exceed 2°C above the 1850-1900 average in the next five years.

…