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a unbiased systematic research on this but what I did find was that racial dynamics play a significant role in people leaving a state but political climate does not. People are more likely to move more locally to live near people whose politics match theirs but not necessarily between states. Even the whole "California Exodus" appears to be largely a conservative political narrative that isn't supported by the data. You notice that there isn't a lot of talk about conservative policies driving liberals out of red states (and when there is, it tends to be dismissed as "wishful thinking" on liberals parts). The reality is that people go where the jobs are and a lot of Americans can't afford to move merely for political reasons.

Edit to add: Only about 2.4% of Americans move to a different state in a given year - even if this causes that to double that's less than 5% of the population...and there may be people who choose to move to the state because of this.