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Last edited Thu Apr 9, 2026, 10:02 PM - Edit history (2)

PCE February +0.4% (January was +0.3%);;: 12 months: 2.8% (same as in January's report);;
CORE PCE: +0.4% (January was +0.4%);; 12 months: 3.0%, (down 0.1% from January's reported 3.1%)
4/9/26
SOURCE URLS: 4/9/26 release: https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income
. . . CURRENT RELEASE - https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-february-2026
. . . FULL RELEASE AND TABLES - UPDATE THIS: https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2026-03/pi0126.pdf
. . . . . . I can't find the equivalent of this one for this month's report, I'll have to dig, but gotta go shopping today
. . . PCE DATA SERIES: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI
. . . CORE PCE DATA SERIES: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/PCEPILFE

Regular PCE aka "all items"

,

CORE PCE (excludes food and energy)



These are horrible numbers. The rolling 3 month average increase, annualized, is:
Regular PCE: 4.11%, , Core PCE: 4.43%, and both are rising
Federal Reserves' inflation target: 2%
(These are calculated using the actual index values, as are my graphs)

As usual, I prefer to present annualized figures so they can be compared to the Fed's target and to different-length time periods

Looking at the month-over-month bar charts, February 2025 was huge. It fell out of the 12-month window in this report, which is why the 12-month graphs/numbers fell slightly (this is true for both the regular PCE and the core PCE. The PCE 12-month increase stayed the same 2.8% after rounding, while the core PCE 12 month average dropped 0.1% (from 3.1% in January to 3.0% in February, when rounded)

What falls out of the 12 month window is just as important, really, honestly, and truly, as what enters the 12-month window, in determining whether the 12-month average ticks up or down.

The CORE PCE is the Federal Reserve's favorite gauge for forecasting FUTURE inflation. This doesn't fit the media's typical narrative that inflation is coming down or at worst "sticky".

Remember the graphs (and OP) on inflation are FEBRUARY. The MARCH ones are likely to be uglier, given that the US/Israeli attacks on Iran began February 28 with the spikes in oil and fertilizer prices

So, the above (February) may very likely be remembered as the "good ol' days" of the Trump II kakistocracy.

The CPI inflation report for MARCH comes out tomorrow, so we'll see how much the Iran war affected things (the US/Israeli attacks began February 28)

ETA - from the OP excerpt:

This makes it sound so tame, like inflation is steady-as-she-goes, meeting expectations, thank you Donald. WELL, FFS, the 0.4% month-over-month -- that's 4.8% on an annualized basis if one simply multiplies by 12 to annualize. More accurately, 0.4% is (1.004^12 - 1 )^100% = 4.91% taking into account that monthly increases compound. That's 4 point fucking 91 percent!! How in God's name anyone can write an article calling inflation "steady a 3%" and pointing out that the core fell 0.1 percentage points (on a 12-month basis), when the latest month is up 4 point fucking 91 percent on an annualized basis!! , I just don't know.

Actually, the core went up 0.367% in the last month-over-month, according to the index numbers for more accuracy, which annualizes to 4.49%. (And they properly round 0.367% to the reported 0.4% )

The regular PCE went up 0.375% in the last month-month, according to the index numbers for more accuracy, which annualizes to 4.60%. (And they properly round the 0.375% to to the reported 0.4%)