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Most people who sell AFTER a hawkish war announcement, like I'm going to end a civilization, are selling after the market has already sunk considerably.

And most people who buy AFTER a dovish announcement, like a 2-week ceasefire, are buying after the market has already risen considerably.

Basically sell low and buy high, which is bad compared to just hanging on.

Now those with inside knowledge of the next upcoming announcement, and buy BEFORE the dovish announcements (at a relative low point in the market), and who sell BEFORE the hawkish announcements (at a relative high point in the market) definitely make money.

I don't believe in trying to time the market, unless the market falls like 25%, then I'll buy (shifting from fixed income to broad-based equity funds, like a total U.S. market index fund, because I have very little NEW money to invest).

But a regular person, with no insider knowledge, would have done well (better than hold anyway) by buying when the mood was gloomy some time after a hawkish annoucement, and by selling after a "peace in our time" announcement like now.

BTW, at Tuesday's close, the S&P 500 is down 3.8% since February 27 (the day before the US/Israel attacks on Iran), and down 3.3% year-to-date.

At this moment, Wednesday 2:23 AM ET, S&P 500 futures are up 2.7% since the Tuesday close.