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mathematic

(1,602 posts)

18. This has been a hard year for econ statistics due to massive policy changes.

Tue Dec 23, 2025, 11:32 AM

Tuesday

Tariffs, kicking out so many immigrants we might actually get workforce population declines, the 45 day shutdown, and of course, the downsizing of the departments that actually produce these reports have all contributed to increased uncertainty and variability in the data.

That said, people are terrible at identifying when we're in a recession. There are people everywhere that say we're in a recession whenever the party they voted for doesn't hold the Presidency. There are permabears that have called "15 of the last 2 recessions". There are people on DU that have said we've been in a recession for most of the last 25 years. There are mainstream economic commentators and forecasters that insisted we were going to enter a recession for some reason or another. (The Sahm rule in '24. The laughable contention that the Fed was raising rates "too fast" in '22. And so on.) Nevertheless, the US economy, which is bigger than any one man, keeps on.

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U.S. economy grows by 4.3% in third quarter, much more than expected, delayed report shows [View all] BumRushDaShow Tuesday OP

Cooked data? sop Tuesday #1

Any reason to believe Trump wouldn't lie to make himself look better? highplainsdem Tuesday #7

Perish the thought. Hugin Tuesday #8

When has he NOT cooked the books? Hieronymus Phact Tuesday #20

This happens when we never get the real data FakeNoose Tuesday #2

Anybody believe that? sinkingfeeling Tuesday #3

Hell no.................. Lovie777 Tuesday #4

Nope LoisB Tuesday #13

you know bdamomma Tuesday #14

Nope Rebl2 Tuesday #15

Let's see.... OldBaldy1701E Tuesday #36

How much of this is based on higher cost due to tariffs? DemMedic Tuesday #5

Much (maybe most) of personal consumption was for Healthcare underpants Tuesday #26

Very disturbing fujiyamasan 20 hrs ago #38

On the one hand, I don't want the economy to collapse, True Dough Tuesday #6

Trump fired the Commissioner of BLS because he didn't like the numbers. djacq Tuesday #9

I believe we are in a full recession. Main Street is hurting! OrlandoDem2 Tuesday #10

I heard Rebl2 Tuesday #17

And what effect did this have on prices or consumer sentiment? mwb970 Tuesday #11

Okun's law--not really a law but informative--would suggest this number is not accurate, but there are caveats. Ol Janx Spirit Tuesday #12

don't believe it Nigrum Cattus Tuesday #16

This has been a hard year for econ statistics due to massive policy changes. mathematic Tuesday #18

And when the real numbers are finally released the sudden drop off will be blamed on Democrats. groundloop Tuesday #19

Bullshit. SamKnause Tuesday #21

Hardy Har Har tavernier Tuesday #22

Consumer confidence (Conference Board) went down again, it was reported today progree Tuesday #23

I smell some B$ over in the Trump Barn IbogaProject Tuesday #24

Reuters on Q3 GDP - progree Tuesday #25

I think it's the October one. The shutdown delayed a lot of reports / data collection. Calista241 Tuesday #27

I think the number is bogus. OLDMDDEM Tuesday #28

LOL LOL LOL bucolic_frolic Tuesday #29

It seems to me that there are too separate issues here, and that we shouldn't conflate them. markodochartaigh Tuesday #30

My wallet says it didn't grow 4.3%, not for me at least. OC375 Tuesday #31

Did CNBC fact check this stuff you know go over to the BLS to see what they have to say......... turbinetree Tuesday #32

Fake stats Ritabert Tuesday #33

Data are legit but extremely misleading (and almost certainly skewed because of the shutdown) Wiz Imp Tuesday #34

I do not trust any numbers from the trump assholes LetMyPeopleVote Tuesday #35

chocolate rations are up! SonOfNebanaube Tuesday #37