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PSPS

(15,218 posts)
14. This is already being panned by economists
Thu Dec 18, 2025, 02:14 PM
Dec 18

From: https://www.ft.com/content/bee83769-fa41-4d18-9dc2-4a46130c72a8

Wall Street’s S&P 500 share index rose 1 per cent in afternoon trading, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.7 per cent — in a fresh bout of volatility for equities. "Markets don’t care [about the data] because the data doesn’t pass the smell test," said Jon Hill, head of US inflation strategy at Barclays.

"Given the lack of explanation about how the BLS made these decisions, it’s hard to take at face value. Because it was such a big miss, and because it’s so hard for the market to take the data literally, investors don’t want to bet the house."

Analysts said the government shutdown distorted the figures. The BLS likely zeroed out some inflation readings for the period when it was unable to collect data, notably in housing costs, which accounts for a third of the headline figure. Black Friday discount deals in late November when surveys restarted may have also skewed readings lower.

Michael Hanson, a senior economist at Wall Street bank JPMorgan, said the lower than expected figures "suggest that the BLS may have held fixed a number of prices it was not able to collect in October, which likely means a material downward bias in the current numbers that will be reversed in coming months as full price collection resumes".


And, of course, all the figures may have been cooked.

Recommendations

1 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

... UpInArms Dec 18 #1
Hmm, both indexes gab13by13 Dec 18 #2
Did they leave out food and utilities? quaint Dec 18 #3
They leave out food and energy in those numbers I believe. The numbers may have also been affected by late lostincalifornia Dec 18 #5
No, they are included in the "all items" CPI. It's the CORE CPI that leaves out food and energy. progree Dec 18 #7
Thanks, got it. lostincalifornia Dec 18 #9
Yes, on the holiday stuff -- it's weird as heck progree Dec 18 #11
Declining demand due to economy is driving some prices down lostnfound Dec 19 #18
Regardless what the numbers say, the reality is that a hell of a lot of people have been laid off, and while fuel prices lostincalifornia Dec 18 #4
Food and energy are included in the numbers, except where it says "all items less food and energy" progree Dec 18 #8
I think that is affected by the uncertainty of the Ukraine/Russia situation, and I think colder weather may have come lostincalifornia Dec 18 #10
From the source: progree Dec 18 #6
I call BS on any number coming from this administration gilpo Dec 18 #12
So "things" that were a dollar a year ago aren't even $1.03 now? What are these "things"? twodogsbarking Dec 18 #13
This is already being panned by economists PSPS Dec 18 #14
So this graph shows that Krasnov lied. He said he would bring prices down. GoodRaisin Dec 18 #15
The BLS is a good source somsai Dec 18 #16
That's odd. The shelter index increased 0.2% during the 2 month Sept-Nov period, and 3.0% year-over-year progree Dec 18 #17
Per Pew Research, here is graphic of basket content weights lostnfound Dec 19 #19
"Fuel is fairly flat YOY" - I don't understand this comment progree Dec 19 #20
Sorry, the yoy fuel data was from a different source lostnfound Dec 21 #23
Cool graph and table, bookmarked, thanks/nt progree Dec 21 #24
GRAPH - rolling 3 month average of CPI, progree Dec 19 #21
This message was self-deleted by its author Rebl2 Dec 19 #22
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