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progree

(12,748 posts)
19. These are seasonally adjusted numbers, so seasonal hires have been already adjusted for
Tue Dec 16, 2025, 11:52 AM
Dec 16

Yes, seasonal adjustments is not a perfect process. They may have over-adjusted, they may have under-adjusted.

In the last 3 months, seasonal adjustments reduced 416.0k jobs/month average to 22.3k jobs/month.
In the last 7 months, seasonal adjustments reduced 203.6k jobs/month average to 17.0k jobs/month.

Here are the month-by-month job numbers changes for 2025, from January through November:

Not seasonally adjusted:
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CEU0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
-2828 849 458 825 703 326 -1037 185 328 679 241 < -- these are in thousands
Last 3 months: 416.0k jobs/mo average,
Last 7 months: 203.6k jobs/mo average

Seasonally adjusted:
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
111 102 120 158 19 -13 72 -26 108 -105 64 < -- these are in thousands
Last 3 months: 22.3k jobs/mo average,
Last 7 months: 17.0k jobs/mo average

All the government reports I know of are seasonally adjusted, and those are the numbers presented in the media and the primary narratives.

As for non-govt ones, most are that I'm familar with. The ADP private payrolls report for example, is seasonally adjusted (I'm seeing the same "well that's because of Christmas hires" on that thread too).

ETA - By the way, the above numbers do not include the preliminary 911,000 downward benchmark revision that was announced in September for the period April 1, 2024 - March 31, 2025. That's 75,900 jobs/mo average. The final version of that will be reported in the January report that comes out in early February, and the above data series will be revised.

In the future, the April 1 2025 - March 31, 2026, will also be revised, likely downward, as they have been in recent years.

Recommendations

1 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

So .04% job growth? SSJVegeta Dec 16 #1
We can't trust anything that comes out of that administration mysteryowl Dec 16 #2
Civil servants at BLS are still solid Johnny2X2X Dec 16 #3
ok mysteryowl Dec 16 #4
I think we have a poster here who worked for the BLS Johnny2X2X Dec 16 #7
We have many thousands from the government that lost their jobs this last year to be tallied. mysteryowl Dec 16 #8
I'm sure you're right RedArkGuy Dec 18 #39
No, the acting director of the BLS is William J. Wiatrowski, a long time deputy director progree Dec 18 #40
They lost about 20% of the lower level staff with the "Fork in the Road" stuff BumRushDaShow Dec 16 #9
Came here to say this MaineBlueBear Dec 17 #28
Soon: the last 2 months are always subject to revision in each report, and almost always revised progree Dec 17 #34
The word "delay" sez it all. ananda Dec 17 #31
Sure Jan... maxrandb Dec 16 #5
Yawn...businesses everywhere hire for Christmas every year. Temp jobs at best. Bengus81 Dec 16 #6
The data are sesonally adjusted so they account for the normal seasonal increase Wiz Imp Dec 17 #21
41K Jobs Lost In Oct/Nov, Unemployed Rises To 4.6% mahatmakanejeeves Dec 16 #10
Hard to believe any numbers put out by this administration ..nt Jarqui Dec 16 #11
Hiring for the holiday season. mwmisses4289 Dec 16 #12
The data are sesonally adjusted so they account for the normal seasonal increase Wiz Imp Dec 17 #22
Wait, these aren't numbers nobody ever thought were possible! What's up? Ol Janx Spirit Dec 16 #13
Holiday hiring, happens every year - nt TBF Dec 16 #14
I guess you missed my point--and joke. The numbers seem more in line with... Ol Janx Spirit Dec 16 #16
I clearly need another cup of coffee. TBF Dec 16 #17
Hehehehe. I hear ya! I always need another cup of coffee! Ol Janx Spirit Dec 16 #18
The data are sesonally adjusted so they account for the normal seasonal increase Wiz Imp Dec 17 #23
Ah - that could be. TBF Dec 17 #25
There probably wasn't an increase in jobs. Wiz Imp Dec 17 #27
Their pre-seasonal-adjustment numbers are that jobs increased 679k jn October and 241k in November progree Dec 17 #32
Um. I worked on the CES Program for close to 35 years. Wiz Imp Dec 17 #33
This message was self-deleted by its author progree Dec 17 #36
This message was self-deleted by its author progree Dec 18 #37
. . . progree Dec 18 #41
Another day, another lie. travelingthrulife Dec 16 #15
These are seasonally adjusted numbers, so seasonal hires have been already adjusted for progree Dec 16 #19
Anybody believe anything this administration says? mdbl Dec 16 #20
The unemployment rate has increased by 0.6% since Trump took over in January. Wiz Imp Dec 17 #24
Looks like Trump has trouble getting it up. GreenWave Dec 17 #26
Seems Rebl2 Dec 17 #29
In Biden's 4 years (48 months) there was only 1 month where job growth Wiz Imp Dec 17 #35
Frustrating Rebl2 Dec 18 #42
MaddowBlog-Unemployment rate reaches a four-year high as Trump's economic woes continue LetMyPeopleVote Dec 17 #30
I'm skeptical RedArkGuy Dec 18 #38
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