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In reply to the discussion: Payrolls rose by 64,000 in November after falling by 105,000 in October, delayed jobs numbers show [View all]progree
(12,748 posts)Yes, seasonal adjustments is not a perfect process. They may have over-adjusted, they may have under-adjusted.
In the last 3 months, seasonal adjustments reduced 416.0k jobs/month average to 22.3k jobs/month.
In the last 7 months, seasonal adjustments reduced 203.6k jobs/month average to 17.0k jobs/month.
Here are the month-by-month job numbers changes for 2025, from January through November:
Not seasonally adjusted:
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CEU0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
-2828 849 458 825 703 326 -1037 185 328 679 241 < -- these are in thousands
Last 3 months: 416.0k jobs/mo average,
Last 7 months: 203.6k jobs/mo average
Seasonally adjusted:
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
111 102 120 158 19 -13 72 -26 108 -105 64 < -- these are in thousands
Last 3 months: 22.3k jobs/mo average,
Last 7 months: 17.0k jobs/mo average
All the government reports I know of are seasonally adjusted, and those are the numbers presented in the media and the primary narratives.
As for non-govt ones, most are that I'm familar with. The ADP private payrolls report for example, is seasonally adjusted (I'm seeing the same "well that's because of Christmas hires" on that thread too).
ETA - By the way, the above numbers do not include the preliminary 911,000 downward benchmark revision that was announced in September for the period April 1, 2024 - March 31, 2025. That's 75,900 jobs/mo average. The final version of that will be reported in the January report that comes out in early February, and the above data series will be revised.
In the future, the April 1 2025 - March 31, 2026, will also be revised, likely downward, as they have been in recent years.