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Bernardo de La Paz

(60,320 posts)
7. "don't like to admit" ... until there arrives a bit of a surge of admissions. Then it becomes a flood and maga turns
Mon Mar 17, 2025, 09:06 AM
Mar 2025

When a trickle of admissions gets a bit of surge at some point, then a bandwagon effect takes hold. Nobody knows where or when the tipping point will be, but the magnitude of the incompetency of the Muck-tRump presidency will become undeniable.

It will become a flood as maga turns on tRump. For a while there will be one-third of populace that comprise a soft core that will be late to turn, but tRump will end up with only about 15-20% hard core supporting him (inner half of the soft core).

People and markets are uncertain now, but not fully aware of the dimensions of the impending economic problems they will face. The market press is full of articles touting this stock or that sector as a buying opportunity. Analysts have been lowering some targets, raising some.

RBC (Royal Bank Canada) is the third major fund manager recently to lower their expectations for S&P 500 for the end of the year. Down to 6200 from earlier target of 6600. Even then in my opinion they aren't dialing in much economic damage yet. The majority of fund managers are even more optimistic, I think. There is a bit of a blind spot about downturns and that is the elephant in the room that is not much discussed.

Conditions have changed. This will not be a normal tourist season, nor the next year. This is not normal. The auto industry is disrupted, non-beneficially. The oil industry loves drill-baby but many refineries are geared to Canadian heavy crude, which is taxed by USA at 10% tariff.

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