Latest Breaking News

Last edited Thu Nov 28, 2024, 12:54 PM - Edit history (2)

BEA.GOV: https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/personal-income-and-outlays-october-2024

PCE inflation measures, Last 5 months, percent increases:

Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct
0.1, 0.2, 0.1, 0.2, 0.2 PCE, month over month,
1.5, 1.1, 1.6, 1.8, 2.2 PCE, rolling 3 month averages, annualized
2.4, 2.5, 2.3, 2.1, 2.3 PCE, year-over-year

Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct
0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.3, 0.3 Core PCE, month over month
2.3, 1.9, 2.2. 2.4, 2.8 Core PCE, rolling 3 month averages, annualized
2.6, 2.7, 2.7, 2.7, 2.8 Core PCE, year-over-year

Keeping in mind that the Fed focuses on the Core measure for projecting FUTURE inflation, because energy prices are so volatile bouncing up and down and repeat, (and to a lesser extent, food prices too). The PCE (aka all items) includes energy and food, the Core PCE excludes them.

It's the CORE PCE, not the PCE, that is the Fed's preferred inflation measure. They won't be happy with this report. Before today, they've been mumbling about "sticky" inflation, and this furthers that narrative.

Next release: December 20, 2024 (notice, not real near month end like it usually is)

Edited to add the rolling 3 month averages
Edit The Core year-over-year, now at 2.8%, is the highest its been since April. Another stat supporting the "sticky" inflation narrative.