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I do think as long as the headline econ news is positive, Trump will be hands off. His team will certainly have priorities. Trump will demand a tariff regime, which is on Commerce to implement. I expect that will be administered corruptly, granting exceptions to favored groups.

What I really see happening is that Bessent, and others, will come up with a scheme that they pitch as tax cuts plus tariffs that are revenue neutral with business tax cuts offseting tax increases from tariffs. There will be lost productivity due to less trade but they'll "project" greater growth due to lower business tax. Republican will pretend the numbers work out and the business conservatives will hope that the tax cuts are enough to counteract the tariffs. It's all nonsense but the American economy is actually pretty resilient and Republican priorities can contribute to both inflation and deflation so it's not easy to predict how it's going to shake out. I really do think Bessent is well equipped to judge it, even if he'll be constrained by Trump's agenda.