Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News Editorials & Other Articles General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

GreatGazoo

(4,755 posts)
5. Forced rebalancing will happen in the QQQ before the Russel or S&P
Mon Jun 1, 2026, 09:58 AM
Yesterday

"15 days from the IPO"

I like to be careful about financial stories that come from hyper-partisan media. One of the rules of gambling is "Never place a bet you don't full understand." Rawstory claims "this will force $30 trillion in 401Ks to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations". This is not true. The new instant inclusion thing is bad but not $30 trillion bad.

Here is better math: "somewhere between $15B and $30B in conservative scenarios, well over $100B in aggressive ones". So rawStory has exaggerated by a factor of 300x to 1,000x. And they completely omit: "Forced selling pressure on existing index members (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, etc.), proportional to their current index weight."

IOW these big passive index funds will be forced to sell more stable stocks to buy this IPO.

Lots of jargon but better math:
https://spotgamma.com/spacex-ipo-index-changes-spotgamma/

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

Latest Discussions»General Discussion»SpaceX going public...thi...»Reply #5