General Discussion

the House and then (and potentially even more negatively impactful and automatic, requiring no state legislative action) the Electoral College map for POTUS.

Post 2030 Census we could likely see a net swing of 22 to 30 or so US House seats (and thus also Electoral College votes) to Red States. I would guess, 4.5 years or so in advance, that it ends up around a net 24 to 26 seat loss from Blue to Red states.

Those lost Blue State House seats and lost Blue State POTUS EVs are going to be a massive spanner in the works for the US and the world going forward after the 2030 midterms in 4 years.

It is very likely going to be so much harder for us Democrats to win the US House and the POTUS after the 2030 midterms. It also puts the US Senate in an even more crucial 'final barrier' positition.

In 2026 midterms we have a shot at taking back the Senate. IF we retain all our current seats we are at 47.

The following states can all be potentially flipped from from Rethug to Dem. (FL, KS, KY, and TN are not going to flip, there are no realistic signs (nor great Dem candidates) that I have seen in any of those 4 ruby Red states for a massive upset, and my list below for possible flips is already aggressive as hell):

AK
IA
ME
NE (independent Dan Osborn, who may not caucus with either party)
NC
OH
TX

Sweeping those gets us to 53 seats plus Osborn in Nebraska, IF we sweep all our current Blue-held seats.

Cooper in NC is the only one I would say is very likely to flip Blue. Next most likely are ME and OH and neither of those are locks.

That gets us to 50. IF Osborn wins and refuses to caucus with either Party, we would have control 50 to 49.

We need to win one out of AK, IA, and TX to get to 51 and remove any doubt about Osborn's intentions.

We are in some danger of getting flipped from Blue to Red in the following 3 states:

GA (thank fuck Govenor Brian Kemp did not run)

MI (this is going to be tough no matter which one of the 3 Dems wins our primary, as Rethug Mike Rogers is beating all 3 in the most current polls)

NH (this is the least likely flip IMHO, as we dodged a huge bullet when the extremely popular Rethug Governor Chris Sununu declined to run for the seat, his brother John is running but is a weaker candidate. Chris Sununu was up by almost double digits against any Dem before he declined, John Sununu trails any Dem, and Pappas will now be our Dem nominee).