General Discussion

In the 2026 race, this has led to an unusual problem: While Democrats enjoy a nearly 2-to-1 advantage over the GOP in the Golden State, making it extremely difficult for a Republican candidate to win a statewide contest, there are eight prominent Democratic candidates hoping to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom, while there are only two prominent Republicans.

This has opened the door to a scenario that has terrified Democratic officials and excited GOP insiders: Maybe the eight Democratic candidates will divide up their party’s base roughly evenly in June, winning about 8% of the statewide vote, while the two leading Republican contenders will also split their party’s base roughly evenly, winning between 15% and 17% of the vote.

Such an outcome would mean that the top two contenders, who would advance to the general election, would both be Republican candidates — locking out Democrats in one of the nation’s bluest states.....

It was against this backdrop that Donald Trump inadvertently did Democrats a favor. The New York Times reported:

For months, California Democrats have worried about a doomsday scenario of two Republicans shutting them out of the governor’s race. President Trump, in one social media post, may have solved their problem.

By endorsing Steve Hilton in California’s June primary, Mr. Trump likely drove Republican voters toward one candidate and reduced the likelihood that their party will take both spots in the general election. That would help Democrats ensure they advance a candidate under the state’s nonpartisan primary system.

Hilton’s intraparty rival is Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, who likely hoped his recent seizure of election ballots would curry favor with the White House. Evidently, that didn’t work: The president instead backed Hilton, who, like so many others who have received Trump’s backing, is a former Fox News host.....

The endorsement “means, more likely, that one Republican will find their way to 20% support or more, and there will be a Democratic candidate in the race,” Mark Baldassare, survey director at the Public Policy Institute of California, told Slate. “That now becomes the most likely outcome.”

If Democratic officials in the state send a thank-you note to the West Wing, at least we’ll know why.