Food shock is inevitable due to the Iran war - and it could get bad [View all]

https://archive.is/Ttw9Y

How bad will it get? The big spike in food prices in the 1970s occurred partly because global food reserves had run low, says Clapp. For now, food reserves are plentiful, but that could change if the conflict drags on, especially if warming-fuelled extreme weather hits yields too.
“There’s a lot of potential for this to spin out of control and lead to a just as severe, if not a worse, crisis,” says Clapp. “If we have major climate events, it could definitely spiral into something much more severe.”
“In the end, prices are global prices, and fertiliser prices are going up everywhere, and food prices are going up everywhere. [People who] are at the lower spectrum of the income distribution are the ones that are most hurt, because they spend a lot on food. They can’t afford significantly rising food prices,” says Qaim.
What’s more, there have already been big cuts in international aid, and more are likely. “When food prices go up and international aid is more needed, the availability of the money goes down and the price of what it can buy goes up,” says Benton. The consequences will include social unrest in the countries hit hardest, says Paul Behrens at the University of Oxford. “Every time that we’ve seen a food price spike in the past, you see this instability.”