Policy over transgender Americans’ rights is poised to become a key wedge issue during the midterms, and Democratic politicians are already ducking and dodging clear positions. But without concrete stances, the party stands to lose more base voters, strategists say.

“The backsliding shows voters exactly who’s willing to fight and who isn’t,” said Tyler Hack, the founder and executive director of Christopher Street Project, a political action committee that endorses candidates with commitments to protecting trans rights. “Some Democrats soften or side step trans rights. It do8esn’t read as strategic. It reads as hesitation in the face of coordinated attacks. Voters, especially young voters and folks in the party space, can tell the difference between leadership and retreat.”

Democrats’ messaging on transgender policy has only become more abstract as politicians gear up for the November midterms and the 2028 election cycle. Democrats in the Senate last month blocked an amendment of the contentious voting identification bill, the SAVE America Act, that sought to bar transgender athletes in women’s sports. Nonetheless, politicians — especially potential 2028 candidates — are still evading questions around trans rights issues.

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As high-profile Democrats like Newsom waiver in their transgender rights advocacy, the landscape for trans Americans grows increasingly hostile. In March, Kansas retroactively invalidated IDs and birth certificates of transgender residents, while last year Iowa struck down anti-discrimination protections by removing “gender identity” as a protected class under the state Civil Rights Act. Utah even considered a bill seeking to ban public funding for gender-affirming care for both adults and minors earlier this year. On March 31, which is International Trans Day of Visibility, an Ohio Republican introduced a broad-reaching state bill that includes bathroom restrictions, name and pronoun restrictions