https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/03/hormuz-strait-iran-oil/686365/

Archive: https://archive.ph/hzsLp

Astonishingly, President Trump and his aides were caught unprepared when Iran, under air assault from the United States and Israel, retaliated by targeting shipping in the Persian Gulf region and specifically through the Strait of Hormuz. Military planners have pointed out for decades that the waterway—through which one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passes—is highly vulnerable to Iranian assault. But the Trump administration acknowledged in classified briefings, CNN reported last night, that it did not make provisions for a closure because officials assumed that such a move would hurt Iran more than the United States.

In its failure to anticipate Iran’s reaction, the administration ignored a dynamic that former Defense Secretary James Mattis, a first-term Trump appointee, was fond of pointing out: Once hostilities begin, “the enemy gets a vote.” U.S. leaders have drastically underestimated the Iranian regime’s ability to survive, adjust, and strike back. Just two weeks into a war that began at a time of the president’s choosing, the U.S. appears uncertain about what to do next.

The campaign that Trump launched in conjunction with Israel has so far depended on superior air power and detailed intelligence about which targets to hit. But Iran has multiple ways to imperil vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. The country is a major producer of cheap aerial drones—which Russia has used to deadly effect against Ukraine over the past four years. Iran also seems to be using sea drones and, according to some reports, may be laying mines in the strait. Many of the systems used to deploy such weaponry are small and easily transportable, so tracking them down is not easy. Doing so requires constant air patrols, and even with those, some Iranian equipment will slip through.

Deploying U.S. naval vessels to accompany ships from the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz could help protect the flow of oil and other vital raw materials, but it would also leave the escorting vessels themselves vulnerable. The Trump administration—for good reason—seems terrified of that option. “It’ll happen relatively soon, but it can’t happen now,” Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC yesterday. “We’re simply not ready.” Some military experts have suggested that the only way the United States can reopen trade through the vital strait is to send ground forces into Iran—a step that, opinion polls suggest, would be highly unpopular with the American public.