General Discussion

Wiz Imp

(9,424 posts)

19. Extremely weak & misleading explanation.

Wed Feb 11, 2026, 11:08 AM

Wednesday

They should have just said there was a problem with the birth-death model and left it at that. When to explain the issue with the birth-death model, it makes no sense.

The reason is a surge in new business formation.

Census Bureau data show that before 2020, Americans were filing about 300,000 new business applications a month. The number was steady for years. Then the pandemic hit. Since then filings have averaged more than 400,000 a month. Some months have been higher. People want to work from home. More are willing to try entrepreneurship. New tools, including AI, make it easier to start.

If they're significantly underestimating new business formation wouldn't that likely mean underestimating job creation?? Yet jobs were overestimated.

They should have just stuck with their last sentence.

What’s for sure is the past two years of record revisions show the birth-death model isn’t capturing the jobs picture as well as it once did.

And blaming job revisions entirely on the birth/death model is ridiculous. A significant factor in the revision is an inaccuracy in the estimates due to extremely poor response rates to the survey.

Click here to purchase valentine hearts!

Edit history

Please sign in to view edit histories.

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

31 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

BLS jobs report revises 2025 down to +181,000 total jobs added for the year [View all] Johnny2X2X Wednesday OP

Yet the billionaires Trump sycophants keep artificially inflating the Stock Market. Chasstev365 Wednesday #1

What you're seeing is a total divorce for working people and economic indicators Johnny2X2X Wednesday #3

It's not billionaires doing that, it is us WSHazel Wednesday #4

If you believe this report, UpInArms Wednesday #2

Does this count all the jobs lost? nt leftyladyfrommo Wednesday #5

We need to add 140,000 jobs per month to keep up with population growth Johnny2X2X Wednesday #6

There is no statistical justification for pulling 800,000 jobs out of 2024 WSHazel Wednesday #7

You have no clue what you're talking about Wiz Imp Wednesday #12

Slow your roll WSHazel Wednesday #15

There was a change in how small businesses are calculated EdmondDantes_ Wednesday #16

I get that for the most part WSHazel Wednesday #18

Last time I respond to you but to repeat, you have no clue how the Benchmark revision process works. Wiz Imp Wednesday #21

I understand what the words say WSHazel Wednesday #23

Extremely weak & misleading explanation. Wiz Imp Wednesday #19

Not necessarily. EdmondDantes_ Wednesday #28

Wow! Dunning Kruger in action! Wiz Imp Wednesday #17

Are you being deliberately obtuse? WSHazel Wednesday #20

Right here: Wiz Imp Wednesday #22

Just so we are aware of your position WSHazel Wednesday #25

🙄 Wiz Imp Wednesday #26

One final thing. Wiz Imp Wednesday #27

Not a hard concept WSHazel Wednesday #31

I do not believe we added 130,000 jobs in January 2026 OrlandoDem2 Wednesday #8

That's not a good number Johnny2X2X Wednesday #9

How has unemployment not gone higher? Johonny Wednesday #10

It's risen some, like a half point Johnny2X2X Wednesday #11

Media making it sound like these job numbers Johonny Wednesday #13

These numbers are a total disaster Johnny2X2X Wednesday #14

Because many people, myself included, just stop looking TexasBushwhacker Wednesday #24

MaddowBlog-New report shows 2025 was even worse for U.S. job market than we thought LetMyPeopleVote Wednesday #29

I'm old enough to remember Johnny2X2X Wednesday #30