I'm a Minneapolis sociologist who studies violence. Here's how ICE observers are helping. (MS NOW) [View all]
For @msnownews.bsky.social, I wrote an article about how ICE Watch is grounded in sociological theories of violence prevention.
The reality is that most men will only commit public violence in extremely specific scenarios and ICE Watch disrupts the conditions necessary for escalation.
— Nicole Bedera (@nbedera.bsky.social) 2026-01-16T18:55:36.538Z
https://www.ms.now/opinion/minneapolis-ice-watch-protesters-violence-research
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ICE Watch works because it surrounds men seeking approval with people loudly expressing their disapproval. And the noise has the added benefit of drawing large crowds of bystanders who can quickly outnumber the ICE agents, who then have to decide if they want to escalate a situation or perhaps abandon their activity altogether.
In Minneapolis, were already seeing the success of ICE Watch. There are countless videos from ICE Watch observers that show agents leaving without detaining anyone after they encounter resistance. There are currently about 3,000 ICE agents in Minnesota, but the Department of Homeland Security claims they have only arrested 2,400 people less than one person per agent.
ICE Watch organizers have also observed that it takes many more agents to make a single arrest when they are around. In other cities, ICE traveled in groups of two or three, but in Minneapolis, we primarily see groups of 6 to 12 agents. The Department of Homeland Security has pulled agents from other cities to ramp up efforts in Minnesota, which guarantees there will be fewer deportations from the places they left. Plus, ICEs fixation on breaking up ICE Watch groups and detaining observers often white citizens has interrupted its original mission.
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It can be hard to see the success of prevention efforts because we cant see inside the minds of people who changed their behavior. But there are signs that ICE Watch is successfully de-escalating violence in the Twin Cities. That also means ICE Watch is a whole lot safer for observers and the broader community than it might have seemed the first time you saw a video full of bystanders with whistles.