General Discussion

I don't really buy into the "Trump is going down" clickbait either. But... a president's approval rating, whether he is up for re-election or not, can be a leading indicator of what will happen in the mid-terms. If a president is riding high, there's a greater chance that his party will do better in the mid-terms than if his numbers are poor. It's not a given by any means, but a party's chances are surely better if their president is popular.

So one value to loudly pushing news stories about the president's dismal polling numbers is that as the mid-terms approach, Republicans in Congress who are up for re-election will get more and more nervous. They know that they already have a built-in disadvantage, because historically the party out of power does better in mid-terms. But if the president's approval is tanking, that makes their re-election battle even harder. This increases the chances that they will reach a tipping point where they have to decide whether to break from the president's policies in order to save their own skins (a desperation move).

Many members of Congress will simply bail under these conditions instead of continuing to run for office, so the number of retirements is always worth watching as the mid-terms approach. My understanding is that Republicans are quitting in high numbers this year. It's harder to win a seat when an incumbent is running, so the more retirements, the more chances for flips.

All of which is to say, consider that Trump's approval rating is not only a marker of his popularity, but a number which, as it goes lower, will cause more and more turmoil among Congressional Republicans as the elections get closer. For that reason alone, it's probably worth keeping an eye on.

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And also let me edit to add -- it was only after I wrote this whole post that I realized you wrote "OTHER THAN IN DOWNBALLOT RACES" in the title of your OP. My bad!