General Discussion

Like all dictatorial autocrats, he actually has to be very careful of public opinion. (Whether Trump is still cognitively aware of this or not, his puppet masters need him in order to retain power.) Autocrats who screw this up badly wind up on lampposts.

He doesn't have the manpower to fight a civil war against 300 M angry Americans. As a country we are way more feisty and incorrigible than Russians. This applies to all sides.

He does seem to maintain control of his personal cult, which I personally think includes the MAJORITY of Americans still. But it's close. He cannot afford many defections and not every member of the cult is core true believer. Even many cult members are not interested in the catastrophic results of local trouble even if they believe in what is being done - they can't afford it and know it.

So, he will be careful about the Insurrection Act, or his "tools" (really, probably his masters) will be.

Minnesota is a nice trial for him because it's somewhat divided (there are a lot of cultish Republicans there, but it's clearly a Blue state). It's small. It's isolated around a lot of very Red states. Illinois was a bit too big, NY/NYC is way too visible, CA is more than they can handle in every way and it's also not isolated.

What would happen if IA was invoked? Imagine refugees fleeing from MN to other states like Syrians or Salvadoreans!