General Discussion

Gallup has regularly asked political independents since 1991 whether they lean more toward the Republican or Democratic Party. Last year, more political independents said they lean toward the Democratic Party than the Republican Party, with the 45% of political independents breaking down into 20% Democratic leaners, 15% Republican leaners and 10% non-leaners. That is a shift from 2024, representing a three-point decline in Republican leaners and a three-point increase in Democratic leaners. Between 2024 and 2025, identification with both the Republican and Democratic parties fell by one percentage point.



Taking into account Americans' party identification and political leanings, an average of 47% identified as Democrats or said they were independents who lean toward the Democratic Party, while 42% identified as Republicans or leaned Republican. This breaks a three-year stretch in which Republicans held an edge in party affiliation.



Party preferences in 2025 essentially reverted back to what they were during Donald Trump’s first term as president, when Democrats held leads averaging five points. Democrats — who usually hold an edge — have had larger advantages than now in 1992 and 1993, 1996 through 1999, and 2006 through 2009.

The shift in the annual average leaned party preferences, moving from a one-point Republican advantage in 2024 to a five-point Democratic advantage in 2025, somewhat obscures the true extent of movement in party affiliation that has occurred over the past 16 months. In the fourth quarter of 2024, which spanned the last month of the presidential election campaign and most of the Trump presidential transition, Republicans held a four-point lead in party affiliation. By the first quarter of 2025, that advantage had disappeared and the parties were on equal footing. By the second quarter, Democrats had gained an edge of three points, 46% to 43%, which expanded to seven points in the third quarter and eight points in the fourth quarter.