General Discussion

Nice summary - I don’t think people actually realize how much the US has been shouldering the burden while the Europeans spending was declining.
Over the past 20 years, NATO allies’ defense spending as a percentage of GDP declined after the Cold War, reaching a low around 2014-2015 when European allies and Canada averaged 1.43%, with only three meeting the informal 2% guideline set in 2006 (mostly US at 3-4%, plus UK and Greece). The US consistently spent 3-4.5%, covering about 70% of total NATO defense.
Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea led to the Wales Summit pledge to aim for 2% by 2024-2025, sparking gradual increases. By 2021, non-US allies averaged around 1.7%, with a handful at or above 2%.
The 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine caused a sharp surge. Non-US allies rose from 1.8% in 2022 to 2.02% in 2024, with 23 allies meeting 2%. Poland led at over 4%, followed by Baltics and Greece above 3%.
In 2025, all 32 allies met or exceeded 2% for the first time, driven by ongoing threats. At the 2025 Hague Summit, allies committed to a new 5% target by 2035 (3.5% core defense + 1.5% broader security).
Central and Eastern Europe spend highest due to proximity to Russia, while the US remains at ~3.4%. Total NATO spending now reflects a more contested era, ending decades of underinvestment.

Sources: NATO annual reports 2014-2025.