THIRTY YEARS AGO, THE POLITICAL SCIENTIST Christopher Wlezien proposed the “thermostatic” theory of politics. In short: If policy goes too far in one direction, voters will send signals to push it in the opposite direction, over time maintaining a rough equilibrium. This effect shows up in public opinion polls on a variety of topics, from immigration to economics to foreign policy. Although Donald Trump has demonstrated that he’s uniquely capable of breaking democratic norms, he may finally have swung the pendulum too far on all of these issues. There are indications that, in thermostatic fashion, Americans are responding to Trump’s attacks on every value, institution, and tradition of American politics by regaining their appreciation for why and how our system works.

Trump’s dismal approval rating suggests that Americans were expecting more from his second term. Voters returned him to the Oval Office because he promised to make their lives more affordable, but he did the opposite by erecting the highest trade barriers the United States has had in a century. An April survey found that 89 percent of Americans expected this policy to raise prices. The latest AP-NORC poll found that just 31 percent of Americans approve of how Trump is handling the economy—the lowest approval of any point in his first or second term.

Plummeting economic numbers should be a political emergency for Trump, as the economy was by far the issue that mattered most to voters in 2024. Inflation has been rising since April—when Trump announced his “liberation day” tariffs—while the labor market is cooling and unemployment is rising. Although tariffs have generally come down since the eye-watering levels announced on liberation day, the average effective tariff rate is 18 percent—the highest since 1934. Farmers have been hit so hard by the tariffs that Trump was forced to give them a $12 billion bailout. Trump says he’ll pay for the bailout with revenue raised by the tariffs—but the bailout is only necessary because China retaliated against the tariffs by refusing to buy American agricultural products. Trump had to give farmers a $20 billion bailout for the same reason during his first term. This is classic Trumponomics: create a problem, announce a partial fix that leaves everyone worse off than where they started, and declare victory.

It’s an article of faith in the MAGAverse that Americans are hostile to free trade, but this simply isn’t true. The popularity of Trump’s economic nationalism has collapsed. According to a recent Politico poll, just 22 percent of Trump voters say tariffs are helping the economy. After months of chaotic and destructive economic conflict with China, a majority of Americans even believe the United States should focus on “friendly cooperation and engagement with China.” Americans weren’t big fans of Trump’s approach to China during his first term, either—just 31 percent thought the trade war with China in 2018 was good for the U.S. economy.

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