Let's talk about talk about Trump's oil shock.... - Belle of the Ranch

Well, howdy there internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about Trump's oil shock.

We're going to go over what the head of the International Energy Agency said. This is one of those times where the experts really kind of say everything that needs to be said. So, it's quote heavy. The expert in question is Fatih Birol. Before leading the whole agency, he was the chief economist which put him in charge of the IEA's widely referenced world energy outlook. Before that, he was with OPEC. He has a pretty clear picture of the energy world. The head of the IEA put forth quite a statement while talking to the National Press Club of Australia. The big takeaway was when he spoke about the oil crises of 1973 and 1979.

"At that time, at each of the crises, the world lost about 5 million barrels per day. As of today, we've lost 11 million barrels per day. So more than two major oil shocks put together."

The oil shock of the 70s was one of the main contributors to stagflation gripping the economy. And beyond oil, he pointed to the natural gas supply. “After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the gas markets, especially in Europe, we lost 75 billion cubic meters. Now, as a result of this crisis, we lost about 140 billion cubic meters.

He went on to sum up the situation facing the world due to Trump's war, "This crisis, as it stands now, is two oil crises and one gas crisis put all together."

Well, that sounds delightful, doesn't it? I'm sure that will do wonders for inflation.

He went on to speak about securing energy in the future and talked about nuclear and renewables. Yes, the same renewables Trump has been trying to shut down and stop production of shock. That's the future.

Back to the oil crisis. He didn't rule out the possibility of additional releases from the world's strategic reserves, saying, "If it is necessary, of course, we will do it, but we will look at the conditions, we will analyze, assess the market, discuss with our member countries.

He pointed out that strategic reserve releases aren't a solution and really only comfort the markets, but don't correct the issues facing the economy. He's right about it not confronting the issue hitting the economy, but it really doesn't seem to comfort markets much.

We just had reserves release 400 million barrels of oil, marking the largest coordinated intervention in IEA history. Year to date, both WTI and Brent crude oil are up by somewhere between 70 and 80%. That doesn't seem like a comforted market.

More than 40 energy production sites have been hit in Trump's war. Even if peace broke out today, we'd be experiencing disruptions and increased prices for quite some time to come. It's probably time to promote real energy independence through renewables.

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.