Let's talk about Polio making a comeback, Trump, Measles, rates, and risks.... - Belle of the Ranch

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about polio making a comeback, Trump, measles, rates, and risks.

We got a question about polio and the answer has both good news and bad news, but there's a silver lining to the bad news. Okay, so here's the question. Belle, I've been watching measles spread all over in my state and I've been listening to you and Dana [Dr. Dana Hawkinson] mention that it's vaccine preventable pretty much every time you have a chance. I don't want to downplay measles, but I'm really worried about polio making a comeback. I know measles is spreading because Trump let liars run amuck during COVID and played into vaccine conspiracies and that more people didn't get their kids vaccinated since then. Do these people know how much worse polio is and get their kids vaccinated for that at least? It's also just a plain ride away.

Allow me to start by saying I'm vaccinated for pretty much everything known to man and I'm a huge supporter of vaccines. Go get your shots.

Now to the message. Yes, vaccination rates did start a downward trend during Trump's first term and they haven't recovered yet. But I will say based on how the data is collected, even though it showed up during COVID, the decline actually started a few years before. The data is generally collected from kindergarten vaccination rates. So the decision to not vaccinate was made a few years before it shows up. Trump didn't create this problem for once. He just made it worse by playing into it.

The bad news is no. People do not seem to have done any kind of risk analysis based on the types of disease. The vaccination rates are almost identical, deviating either way by a fraction of a percent or so in recent years.

Now, some good news. Measles is widely considered to be the most contagious disease in the world. It has an R-naught of 12 to 18. That's the average number of people that a single infected person will transmit a disease to in a population where everyone is completely susceptible. The higher the R-naught, the higher the needed vaccination rate to keep the community safe. That's why the herd immunity for measles is breaking down already.

Polio's R-naught is 5 to7. So a national vaccination rate of 92.5 works for polio and fails for measles. Polio is widely believed to need an 80 to 85% vaccination rate to maintain herd immunity. I would air on the side of caution with 85%.

Back to the bad news. In recent years, the following states have had rates below 85%. Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, which even has years below 80. There are a number of other states that are very close. There's a link below if you want to check your state.

Here's the silver lining to the bad news. We have a little time to educate people about the risks. Those measles outbreaks might also remind people of the value of vaccines at a much lower human cost than polio. Here's my contribution to education. If you're thinking it's okay because polio is less contagious, just remember the flu has an even lower R-naught of 0.9 and 2.1. You ever had that? Vaccination is good.

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.