Let's talk about Trump's state of the union: pregame edition.... - Belle of the Ranch

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about Trump's State of the Union.

President Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver his State of the Union address at 9:00 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday, February 24th. That's tonight. I'm saying scheduled because there are still some murmurs that he might reschedule because of how bad things currently sit. That seems unlikely at this late stage. But here we are.

Okay, so this is that moment where a president touts his accomplishments. The problem for Trump is that the only things he's actually accomplished are things that are incredibly unpopular with the public. So for Trump, the play is simple. Play the blame game. Misrepresent things to the American people and list grievances. That's the MO.

The problem for Trump is that he's had a year and he promised to solve everything from wars to affordability on day one. For whatever reason, people believed him. Now it's a year in and they're frankly over it. The only thing that has substantially changed for most people is that the economy is worse.

But what about the Dow? The Dow isn't a measure of the economy for most people. We don't have a booming economy. America isn't hot, to use his term, unless he means nobody wants to touch it. Inflation is up and the GDP is down. Most Americans know this. It's why the recent polling has gone so poorly for Trump. Favorability polling has had a major issue where we know that some people have been turning on Trump not because he was going too far but because they didn't think he was going far enough. The problem is that it was pretty hard to gauge.

However, a new poll asks a different question. According to the latest NPR PBS News Marist poll, when presented with "Overall, would you describe the direction in which President Trump is moving the country as?" Then it gives the options. 55% say the direction in which Trump is moving the country is for the worse. Only 37% think it's changed for the better. and 8% think Trump is creating no real change at all. That 8% are probably the people who think he isn't going far enough.

As he tees up for the State of the Union with all of his grandiose promises failing to materialize, he's addressing a country where the majority of people already believe he's made the country weaker. That 55% of people who think he's making the country worse include one out of five Republicans.

But without the cameras, he's addressing a room. And about half the people in that room are staring at an unpopular, failing president who is term limited and are trying to decide whether or not it would be beneficial to them to play along with him through the midterms or go ahead and view him as a lame duck now.

Republicans in Congress have to be aware that those who are acting like Trump is a lame duck already, like Representative Massie, are having their names put forward as potential presidential candidates. While most of those who are going along with him are worried about keeping their seats.

For the average person, the State of the Union doesn't mean much. Trump's rants and promises will be what they always are, but for Trump, this night is important. If he fails to convince Republicans that he still has the juice, we might see a very different dynamic start to take shape.

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.