Suspicions of Insider Trading as Online Betting Markets Reap Windfalls in Iran War

The rise of online prediction markets has allowed people to bet on virtually any news event. For a small group of traders, the war with Iran has been a windfall. A number of lucrative, well-timed bets related to the war totaling over $1 billion have raised alarm over people connected to the Trump administration possibly using inside information to profit.

Amanda Fischer, policy director and chief operating officer for Better Markets, says it’s unclear how closely regulators are watching these online betting markets. The president’s son Donald Trump Jr. is also an adviser to the two leading prediction markets, Polymarket and Kalshi, raising further questions about conflicts of interest.

“There is a strict prohibition on offering gambling related to war, assassination, terrorism, gaming, activities that are illegal under state law or anything that’s contrary to the public interest. But the [Commodity Futures Trading Commission] under President Trump has completely retrenched from any enforcement of what kind of contracts are made available on these platforms,” says Fischer.