D.C. winter forecast: Most snow in 5 years and boosted big storm chances

The Capital Weather Gang is predicting a colder, snowier winter compared to recent years in Washington, D.C., fueled by El Niño

By Matt Ross and Jason Samenow
November 9, 2023 at 6:00 a.m. EST



Snow falls at the U.S. Capitol during a snowstorm on March 21, 2018. (Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images)

Even as we bask in abnormally warm weather, December is a mere three weeks away and so it’s time for our annual winter outlook.

The last several winters have been a thrill for those who prefer mild weather in the Washington region but particularly disappointing for snow lovers. Just 0.4 inches of snow fell last winter, the third-least on record. It was also the second-warmest winter on record; 19 days hit at least 60 degrees in January and February.

We’re anticipating a harsher winter ahead, and one that is much more satisfying for those who love the snow. ... Our outlook calls for above normal snowfall for the first time since the winter of 2018-2019, when Reagan National Airport, Washington’s official observing location, received 16.9 inches.

The primary driver for our snowier outlook is the ongoing El Niño, which is the climate pattern characterized by warmer-than-normal ocean waters in the tropical Pacific. El Niños tend to fuel strong storms in the southern United States that sometimes turn up the East Coast, increasing precipitation and snow prospects in the Mid-Atlantic. Still, every El Niño winter is different; some produce very little snow, others bring blizzards. ... Ultimately, how much snow we see will depend on the strength of this season’s El Niño and a number of other factors which can be difficult to predict.

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Ian Livingston and Dan Stillman contributed to this report.

By Jason Samenow
Jason Samenow is The Washington Post’s weather editor and Capital Weather Gang's chief meteorologist. He earned a master's degree in atmospheric science and spent 10 years as a climate change science analyst for the U.S. government. He holds the Digital Seal of Approval from the National Weather Association. Twitter https://twitter.com/capitalweather