‪Gillian Branstetter
‪@gbbranstetter.bsky.social‬

“'You would have no command and control over the military and no police force,' he said. 'You’d have looting and chaos.' Any U.S. military deployment meant to stabilize the country would probably require tens of thousands of troops, he said."

U.S. Ran a War Game on Ousting Maduro. Venezuela Fell Into Chaos.

www.nytimes.com
2:20 PM · Jan 3, 2026

U.S. Ran a War Game on Ousting Maduro. Venezuela Fell Into Chaos.
An official U.S. government exercise during President Trump’s first term forecast turmoil and potential violence in a post-Maduro Venezuela.

Nov. 20, 2025
U.S. Military Action in Venezuela


Members of a group loyal to President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela, during a rally in Caracas in September. Adriana Loureiro Fernandez for The New York Times

By Michael Crowley
Reporting from Washington
Nov. 20, 2025
Leer en español

As President Trump pressed during his first term to oust President Nicolás Maduro, U.S. officials ran a war game to assess what the Venezuelan strongman’s fall might unleash. ... The results showed that chaos and violence were likely to erupt within Venezuela, as military units, rival political factions and even jungle-based guerrilla groups jockeyed for control of the oil-rich country.

Those unclassified findings, supported by other expert analysis, underscore the risk associated with Mr. Trump’s second-term push against Mr. Maduro. ... While Mr. Trump has not explained his precise goals regarding Venezuela, he has described Mr. Maduro as an outlaw and an enemy of the United States, and has moved troops, warships and aircraft within striking distance of the country.

{snip}

The U.S. government war games — exercises in which officials and experts convened to plot out the possible consequences of Mr. Maduro’s fall — were recounted by Douglas Farah, a national-security consultant who specializes in Latin America and who joined several such exercises while a fellow at the National Defense University. Participants included officials across the U.S. government, including ones from the Pentagon and State Department.

Mr. Maduro’s overthrow — whether by military coup, popular uprising or U.S. military action — would shatter Venezuela’s brittle authoritarian government and produce “chaos for a sustained period of time with no possibility of ending it,” Mr. Farah wrote in an unclassified report to Pentagon officials after an exercise conducted in 2019. ... Mr. Farah first spoke about his participation in the war games in an interview earlier this month with the SpyTalk podcast.

{snip}

Michael Crowley covers the State Department and U.S. foreign policy for The Times. He has reported from nearly three dozen countries and often travels with the secretary of state.

A version of this article appears in print on Nov. 21, 2025, Section A, Page 11 of the New York edition with the headline: If Maduro Is Ousted, Chaos Will Overtake Venezuela, Experts Say. Order Reprints | Today’s Paper | Subscribe