Violent and non-violent death tolls for the Gaza conflict: new primary evidence from a population-representative field survey

Background
High-quality mortality estimates are crucial for understanding the human cost of conflict. The Gaza Ministry of Health (MoH) has provided regular updates to their violent death toll for the Gaza Strip following Oct 7, 2023, but these reports have attracted both criticism and support. Independent estimates of both violent and non-violent deaths were needed.

Results
We completed 2000 household interviews out of 2058 households approached (97·2% household response rate), representing 9729 individuals who were household members on Oct 6, 2023. Item response rates were very high, with 100% completion for core demographic variables (age, gender, and vital status) and 99·8% completion for cause of death (460 of 461 deaths). The sample closely matched the pre-conflict population distribution by Governorate (figure). 1227 (61·4%) respondents were men and 773 (38·6%) were women. 242 (12·1%) respondents were aged 16–24 years, 641 (32·0%) were aged 25–34 years, 504 (25·2%) were aged 35–44 years, 339 (16·9%) were aged 45–54 years, and 274 (13·7%) were 55 years or older. Mean household size was 4·9 people (SD 2·2), slightly below the population figure of 5·5, possibly indicating successful training to exclude non-household relatives.