In this video, we will analyze Ukraine’s ultimatum to Belarus.

Here, Ukraine issued a stark warning to Belarus to stop supporting Russian long range drone attacks on Ukraine. What followed was absolute panic in Belarus, prompting Lukashenko to start asking for forgiveness as the deadline set by Ukraine approaches quickly.

Recently, Zelensky issued an ultimatum to Belarus, stating that relay stations in two Belarusian regions bordering Ukraine are helping Russian forces adjust strikes against Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. This equipment has enabled attacks on Ukraine’s energy sector, railways, and cities. He warned Minsk 5 days ago that the relays must be shut down or removed within a week, otherwise Ukraine would take action itself.

This ultimatum comes as Russia continues to expand its military infrastructure inside Belarus. Preparations for a relay network and drone control points began as early as March, with Russian forces developing a growing network of airfields and launch sites near the Ukrainian and Belarusian border. Their deployment enables Russia to launch attack drones directly toward Kyiv or route them along the border toward western Ukraine. In addition to launch facilities, Russia is increasingly relying on communication and signal relay systems located on Belarusian territory, which support drone operations and help guide attacks against Ukrainian targets. During many large scale strikes, Russian drones first enter Belarusian territory before crossing into Ukraine, often flying only five to ten kilometers from the border. This tactic creates significant challenges for Ukrainian air defenses because Ukraine cannot safely position its air defense assets close to the Belarusian border, as doing so would expose them to Russian reconnaissance drones and increase their vulnerability to attack. Intelligence reports indicate that Moscow is now constructing at least four dedicated drone bases in Belarus for launching Shahed type suicide drones. Once operational, these facilities will reduce flight times and shorten Ukraine’s warning and response windows.

Ukraine has already demonstrated its ability to disrupt Russian drone operations inside Belarus. In late February, Ukrainian forces disabled parts of a Russian Wi-Fi mesh relay network used to support Shahed drone attacks. While the exact methods used in this operation remain classified, a cyber or electronic warfare system was employed. The operation followed intelligence disclosures and prior Ukrainian warnings, ultimately resulting in the dismantling of several relay stations. This proves that Ukraine can destroy these networks without risking a major escalation that a kinetic strike would cause. However, Belarus subsequently rebuilt parts of the network, allowing Russia to continue using Belarusian territory to support drone strikes against Ukraine. Against this backdrop, Unmanned Systems Forces commander Robert Brovdi stated that Ukraine has already identified the first five hundred targets inside Belarus that could be struck in the event of a new invasion from the north. Simultaneously, Zelensky emphasized that Ukraine knows the location of every Belarusian enterprise involved in supporting Russia’s military campaign, including factories producing components for armored vehicles and missile systems, as well as facilities supplying fuel to the Russian military.

As a result of Ukraine’s ultimatum and growing pressure, Lukashenko insisted that Ukraine should not expect military action from Belarus, particularly under his leadership. He also apologized to Zelensky for previous insulting comments and stressed that Minsk has no interest in entering the war. Lukashenko openly acknowledged that Belarus would face serious risks if Ukraine began conducting strikes against Belarusian territory in the same manner it currently strikes targets inside Russia. Such concerns are reinforced by the growing difficulties facing Russia’s own air defense network, which, despite possessing far greater resources, continues to struggle with Ukrainian drone and missile attacks. Consequently, Belarus would face even greater challenges in defending itself because the country possesses significantly fewer air defense assets than Russia, which is already stretched thin defending itself.

Overall, Ukraine’s ultimatum demonstrates a growing willingness to hold Belarus directly accountable for supporting Russian drone operations. By exposing Belarus’s military and industrial role in the war while highlighting its inability to withstand a sustained Ukrainian strike campaign, Kyiv is increasing pressure on Minsk to distance itself from Moscow. The result is a dilemma for Lukashenko, as continued support for Russia now carries increasingly devastating risks for Belarus itself.