Putin Is Losing Control of His War - Jason Jay Smart

The Kremlin's demand for loyalty has triggered a predictable cycle of institutional collapse. Fear of being labeled disloyal forces subordinates to sanitize intelligence reports before they send them to their superiors. The truth is thus scrubbed for optics and only arrives when the smoke is already visible.

This internal blackout accelerates as Moscow prioritizes paranoia over performance. Loyalty tests have replaced competence, fueling a power struggle between the FSB and GRU for narrative control. When truth is filtered upward, decision speed drops. Late orders and repeated mistakes become routine because specificity requires accountability. This friction extends to the digital front: Telegram restrictions have turned vital coordination channels into high-risk liabilities.

The decay eventually hits the physical layer. "Ghost factories" emerge where promised output meets bottlenecks in CNC tools, power, and skilled labor. Repair queues grow and replacement flows thin, masked by optimistic official statistics until the failure is irreversible.

Finance turns these bottlenecks into a countdown. With National Wealth Fund liquid assets at $55.1 billion as of February 2026 and war costs hitting 7% of GDP, the financial cushion is evaporating. As resources vanish, reporting becomes "safer" and infighting sharpens, making the system increasingly brittle and predictable.

CHAPTERS:
00:00 - Intro: The Price of Putin’s Loyalty
03:21 - Putin’s Regime: The Internal Feedback Loop of Fear
04:45 - Strategic Blow: Ukraine Hits Russian Production
05:40 - Kremlin Lies: Why the Russian MoD Hides the Truth
07:53 - Russia’s Paralysis: Why the Kremlin Has No Victory Plan
08:21 - Iskander-M Crisis: Ukraine Hits Russian Rocket Factories
09:32 - Putin’s Cowardice: How the Kremlin Fled Internal Threats
10:45 - Russia’s Economy: Bank Defaults and Financial Fragility
12:30 - Putin’s Last Allies: The Fall of Orban and Global Support