Russia Buckles - Joe Blogs

Russia’s public finances are coming under increasing strain as pressure builds across multiple areas of the economy.

Official figures show that Russia’s oil and gas revenues fell sharply in 2025 and declined again in January, reaching their lowest levels in several years. With energy income forming a critical pillar of the state budget, the downturn is now feeding directly into widening fiscal stress.

A government-linked think tank has warned that Russia’s 2026 budget may undershoot official assumptions by at least 18%, potentially pushing the deficit far beyond planned levels and increasing reliance on reserves or additional borrowing.

External demand is also weakening. India, one of the largest buyers of Russian crude since sanctions were imposed, has begun pulling back on purchases, raising the risk of deeper discounts and further revenue losses. At the same time, a strengthening ruble is reducing the ruble value of dollar-priced exports, cutting company revenues and lowering tax receipts.

Taken together, falling oil and gas income, weaker external demand and adverse currency dynamics are intensifying pressure on Russia’s budget, reserves and wider economy.

Chapters:
0:00 Intro
0:24 2025
2:11 2026
5:06 THINK TANK
6:06 RESERVES
6:56 INDIA
9:25 RUBLE
10:55 SUMMARY & CONCLUSION