Thwaites Ice Shelf May Be On Track For Collapse In 2027; Meanwhile, Midwinter Temps In Antarctic Up To 36F Over Normal

VIDEO ONE: AN ANALYSIS OF THREE STUDIES
Here’s a very recent overview of research on what’s going on with Thwaites —

. Generally, three new studies give us a better understanding of the continent (versus the ice), of the weather, and of the data models, all of which are explaining more about how the under-ice melting is happening and how long it will take for collapse. There’s now a timeline for the disintegration of the shelf — within the next year — and at that point the Thwaites Glacier behind it starts flowing faster toward the sea. The timeline on the glacier melting/breaking apart is anywhere between decades to a century. But the data are showing that the more extreme models are the most accurate.

VIDEO TWO: VISUAL EXPLANATIONS OF THE ISSUE
This video is nicely illustrated and easier to understand about the science and Antarctic geography — . It also talks about tides (they’re lifting and lowering the glacier twice a day, pumping warmer water back to the glacier’s base), eddies, feedback loops that are accelerating the melting process, geoengineering ideas (that are unlikely to happen), and historic impacts of a super El Niño on this system.

VIDEO THREE: SCIENTISTS TALKING ABOUT WHY IT MATTERS
This video is about why scientists are so concerned about Thwaites — ]. It is a lot of first person information from the scientists who are on the ground or working with the data, and it also has excellent visuals and lots of data in context. There are demonstrations, an overview of the various sources of data (including seals!), an explanation of Marine Ice Cliff Instability and why it doesn’t seem to be what is happening here, an explanation of Marine Ice Sheet Instability and why this seems to be exactly what is happening at Thwaites, and trying to figure out what will happen to Thwaites in the near future.

A WEATHER PAGE
And, if the ocean news about Antarctica isn’t enough, here’s some weather news from places where it’s as much as 36°F above normal — https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/antarctica. Remember, it’s winter there. Pick an individual base or station and click on Climate (Averages) to see where the temps should be versus where they are (for example, at the Rothera Research Station, July averages are between 9°and 23°F, while today it is 33°F).

EDIT

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2026/7/5/800065709/community/news-about-thwaites-its-not-good/