Sunbelt Residents' Risks From Fire, Drought & Extreme Heat Already Outpace Hazards Americans In Other Regions Face

Counties across the southern half of the U.S., especially those with large and socially vulnerable populations, will be much more exposed to wildfire, drought and extreme heat than other parts of the country as the region’s climate warms in the coming decades, according to new research from the U.S. Forest Service and Resources for the Future. The report, “Changing Hazards, Exposure, and Vulnerability in the Conterminous United States, 2020–2070,” builds on the Forest Service’s 2020 Resources Planning Act Assessment, which makes 50-year projections on the conditions of renewable resources across the country’s forests.

In the study, researchers identified the continental U.S. counties that are especially exposed to natural disasters stemming from water shortages, extreme heat and wildfires, as well as those with socially vulnerable populations. The study’s various models, based on rates of growth and warming, show communities from Arizona to Florida at particular risk as states in the southern half of the country are seeing booming populations, long-standing inequities in their communities and increasing climate-driven threats.

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Sunbelt metropolises such as Phoenix have been booming for a long time, and their growth is continuing, though the rates have slowed in recent years. But the region is especially vulnerable to water shortages, extreme heat and wildfires, and is home to many communities of color, low-income households and immigrants, all more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.



The researchers found high rates of overlap among counties at risk for increased heat stress and drought and those that have large and vulnerable populations. Between 31 and 65 percent of counties facing water shortages and 46 to 68 percent of counties facing heat stress by 2070 have substantial imperiled populations. Those correlations clearly identified the counties most at risk from the impacts of climate change, information potentially valuable to policymakers, the authors said.

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https://insideclimatenews.org/news/18122024/sunbelt-growing-population-faces-increasing-climate-hazards/