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OKIsItJustMe

(21,016 posts)
Wed Dec 11, 2024, 02:23 AM Dec 11

Stanford University: AI predicts Earth's peak warming

https://sustainability.stanford.edu/news/ai-predicts-earths-peak-warming
AI predicts Earth's peak warming
Artificial intelligence provides new evidence that rapid decarbonization will not prevent warming beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius. The hottest years of this century are likely to shatter recent records.

December 10, 2024
By Josie Garthwaite

Researchers have found that the global goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels is now almost certainly out of reach.

The results, published Dec. 10 in Geophysical Research Letters, suggest the hottest years ahead will very likely shatter existing heat records. There is a 50% chance, the authors reported, that global warming will breach 2 degrees Celsius even if humanity meets current goals of rapidly reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net-zero by the 2050s.

A number of previous studies, including the authoritative assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, have concluded that decarbonization at this pace would likely keep global warming below 2 degrees.

We’ve been seeing accelerating impacts around the world in recent years, from heatwaves and heavy rainfall and other extremes. This study suggests that, even in the best case scenario, we are very likely to experience conditions that are more severe than what we’ve been dealing with recently,” said Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability climate scientist Noah Diffenbaugh, who co-authored the study with Colorado State University climate scientist Elizabeth Barnes

http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad91ca
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Stanford University: AI predicts Earth's peak warming (Original Post) OKIsItJustMe Dec 11 OP
AI predicts that most of the world will see temperatures rise to 3C much faster than previously expected OKIsItJustMe Dec 11 #1
This is more in line with what I was expecting to see Mike 03 Dec 11 #6
Well, it was good knowing you guys. RandySF Dec 11 #2
Plenty of time to say goodbye OKIsItJustMe Dec 11 #3
Maybe...maybe not -misanthroptimist Dec 11 #7
There's another indirect threat OKIsItJustMe Dec 11 #10
I think nuclear war is probable -misanthroptimist Dec 11 #11
From: Water, ice, society, and ecosystems in the Hindu Kush Himalaya OKIsItJustMe Dec 11 #12
Thanks for that -misanthroptimist Dec 11 #13
You're welcome OKIsItJustMe Dec 11 #14
It will hit 3 C Old Crank Dec 11 #4
I know how you feel OKIsItJustMe Dec 11 #8
We have friends like that Old Crank Dec 11 #15
You mean a vast mountain range of batteries, covering all of our new deserts with solar cells and wind turbines... NNadir Dec 11 #5
I have a better idea OKIsItJustMe Dec 11 #9
I have a more intelligent comment. NNadir Dec 12 #16
First, it's not an either/or situation installing renewables does not preclude installing nuclear plants OKIsItJustMe Dec 12 #17

OKIsItJustMe

(21,016 posts)
1. AI predicts that most of the world will see temperatures rise to 3C much faster than previously expected
Wed Dec 11, 2024, 02:29 AM
Dec 11
https://ioppublishing.org/news/ai-predicts-that-most-of-the-world-will-see-temperatures-rise-to-3c-much-faster-than-previously-expected/
AI predicts that most of the world will see temperatures rise to 3C much faster than previously expected
10 Dec 2024 by Kate Giles



Key Findings

Using AI-based transfer learning, the researchers analysed data from 10 different climate models to predict temperature increases and found:
  • 34 regions are likely to exceed 1.5°C of warming by 2040.
  • 31 of these 34 regions are expected to reach 2°C of warming by 2040.
  • 26 of these 34 regions are projected to surpass 3°C of warming by 2060.

Elizabeth Barnes says:

“Our research underscores the importance of incorporating innovative AI techniques like transfer learning into climate modelling to potentially improve and constrain regional forecasts and provide actionable insights for policymakers, scientists, and communities worldwide.”

Noah Diffenbaugh, co-author and professor at Stanford University, added:

“It is important to focus not only on global temperature increases but also on specific changes happening in local and regional areas. By constraining when regional warming thresholds will be reached, we can more clearly anticipate the timing of specific impacts on society and ecosystems. The challenge is that regional climate change can be more uncertain, both because the climate system is inherently more noisy at smaller spatial scales and because processes in the atmosphere, ocean and land surface create uncertainty about exactly how a given region will respond to global-scale warming.”

Mike 03

(17,361 posts)
6. This is more in line with what I was expecting to see
Wed Dec 11, 2024, 05:21 AM
Dec 11

from the A.I. interventions, unfortunately.

It's obvious even to laypersons that warming is exceeding many of the models. It's incredibly scary--and we won't hear very much about it in the United States during the Trump dictatorship. He will probably ban the use of the words "global warming" and "climate change." And he'll roll back as many of Biden's climate programs as possible.

Suicidal stupidity.

-misanthroptimist

(1,226 posts)
7. Maybe...maybe not
Wed Dec 11, 2024, 10:25 AM
Dec 11

It is highly unlikely that the temperature alone will do in civilization. That will happen due to extreme weather events in food producing regions. The probability of such events occurring continues to increase. A 2C increase in temperature doesn't guarantee such devastating effects, it just raises the likelihood. That likelihood, though smaller, still exists at 1.5C -which is where we were last year. While such a catastrophe is still unlikely, it has still never been more likely than it is now.

One year with food producing regions being devastated really is all it will take to unravel civilization. The poor nations will starve. The rich nations will face price inflation of food prices that haven't been seen on a global scale ever, likely resulting in riots and widespread political instability.

The upshot of all of that is that we may have plenty of time to prepare, or none at all. And not a person on Earth can tell you with any real confidence which is closer to correct.

OKIsItJustMe

(21,016 posts)
10. There's another indirect threat
Wed Dec 11, 2024, 02:10 PM
Dec 11

As climate pressures mount, and territorial disputes increase, the chance that some “rogue state” decides to start lobbing nuclear warheads could bring a whole new world of trouble.

Even without a nuclear exchange, if the GOP thinks we have an “immigration problem” now, just wait…

I can’t help wondering if the drones seen flying about in the "tri-state area" are doing reconnaissance flights for some purpose.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143354574

-misanthroptimist

(1,226 posts)
11. I think nuclear war is probable
Wed Dec 11, 2024, 02:32 PM
Dec 11

The Himalayan glaciers provide huge amounts of water to China, India, and Pakistan -all of whom possess nuclear weapons. Those glaciers are melting rapidly. When the fresh water supply is diminished enough, it's fairly probable that one or more of those nations will lob nukes to try and keep an adequate water supply.

All things being equal, that probably is a late 21st - early 22nd century problem -if nations and nukes still exist in any meaningful way by then.

-misanthroptimist

(1,226 posts)
13. Thanks for that
Wed Dec 11, 2024, 02:59 PM
Dec 11

I hadn't seen that particular paper. I will read it. Just off the graphics, I think I have a handle on the situation generally.

OKIsItJustMe

(21,016 posts)
14. You're welcome
Wed Dec 11, 2024, 03:04 PM
Dec 11

The best case scenario seems to be that by 2100, the area of the glaciers will be at about 70% less than it was in 2001.

Old Crank

(4,889 posts)
4. It will hit 3 C
Wed Dec 11, 2024, 03:59 AM
Dec 11

We aren't doing enough right now. This incoming administration will literally add fuel to the fire. Businesses are too busy creating shareholder value to cut back.
What my immediate family does to cut back is of almost no consequence.
I won't be around to see the worst.

OKIsItJustMe

(21,016 posts)
8. I know how you feel
Wed Dec 11, 2024, 12:32 PM
Dec 11

I do my very best to conserve. I fret about an “unnecessary” 10 miles of driving. Then I hear about friends, relatives, acquaintances literally flying all over the globe.

I don’t believe anyone who is alive will “be around to see the worst."

Old Crank

(4,889 posts)
15. We have friends like that
Wed Dec 11, 2024, 05:08 PM
Dec 11

three flights to Europe from CA with the family....
We just went to Lyon, from Munich, by train. Much more relaxing.
We limit our return flights to the US unless needed. Now the requirements to be there have fallen away.
Our lights are all LED and keep our apt around 68-70 in the winter.

NNadir

(34,841 posts)
5. You mean a vast mountain range of batteries, covering all of our new deserts with solar cells and wind turbines...
Wed Dec 11, 2024, 04:46 AM
Dec 11

...taking all of our fresh water and electrolyzing it to make hydrogen won't work to save every living thing on the planet?

Can't we just repeal the laws of thermodynamics in Congress?

Here I was, thinking everything was just great because so called "renewable energy" was so great.

Oh well, it's not as bad as Fukushima, is it? Isn't there a nice University Press release that will show us the way to nirvana?

If anyone wants to know who is responsible for this, a mirror could be a useful device for making the discovery. This is particularly reactionaries.

OKIsItJustMe

(21,016 posts)
9. I have a better idea
Wed Dec 11, 2024, 01:15 PM
Dec 11

Let’s all sit on our thumbs and wait for all of those miraculous Gen IV reactors to get out of the dream & development, approval & deployment phases, swapping thumbs occasionally, while carbon emissions continue to grow. Yeah! That’s the ticket!

Or, we could deploy technology today that works today, like other countries are successfully doing. No, that would be stupid!



https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-roadmap-a-global-pathway-to-keep-the-15-0c-goal-in-reach

NNadir

(34,841 posts)
16. I have a more intelligent comment.
Thu Dec 12, 2024, 01:33 PM
Dec 12

Let's choose a form of energy, conceived by the finest minds the world has ever known, that survived decades of mindless vituperation, specious attacks, and insipid scsre mongering from anti intellectual uninformed clowns and has functioned at a high level for decades.

The nuclear industry exists, in spite of ignorant attacks on it, saves lives and is independent, unlike solar and wind, of the fossil fuel industry. One must be clueless indeed not to know that it consistently produces more primary energy than solar and wind combined, has done so from decades.

Of course there are a lot of clueless people who have prevented the growth rate of the existent industry matching its previous success, with specious reasoning, if one can call insipid selective attention "reasoning." Their ignorance killed people.

There are now 64 nuclear reactors under construction around the world. This is near the pace set in the late 20th century when we built the reactors that serve us still. The triumph of ignorance, if surely not in politics then at least in energy technology, is drawing to a close.

We should stop funding the reactionary and wasteful cult of so called "renewable energy" that soaks up trillions of dollars for no result other than accelerating the use of fossil fuels and the destruction of the atmosphere. I note that the wind and solar industry failed to slow extreme global heating in an atmosphere of wild bachnalian but stupid cheering for them. The bill has come in for this idiot's party. The planet is in flames. Waiting for the "renewable energy" nirvana that did not come, is not here and won't come, is now purely out of absurdity theater, pure Beckett, "Waiting for Godot."

OKIsItJustMe

(21,016 posts)
17. First, it's not an either/or situation installing renewables does not preclude installing nuclear plants
Thu Dec 12, 2024, 01:42 PM
Dec 12

Second, we need lots of clean power ASAP. There are greenhouse gas emissions associated with the production of renewable energy, mining for minerals, construction, etc. Similarly, there are greenhouse gas emissions associate with nuclear power. Nuclear plants must be built from concrete and steel, which all comes from somewhere. The uranium must be mined refined and enriched.

Third, other countries are deploying renewables. The EIA believes that renewables are the primary driver of any effort to decarbonize our energy systems.

Fourth, and perhaps most importantly the “decision makers” don’t give a damn what you or I think. So, your incessant harping regarding any advance in renewable energy accomplishes absolutely nothing other than annoying people in this discussion.



Photovoltaic cells predate nuclear power
https://www.solarfeeds.com/mag/fritts-legacy-unveiling-the-first-solar-cell/


Decoding the 1883 Photovoltaic Cell: A Technical Perspective

The 1883 photovoltaic cell, Fritts’ brainchild, was a marvel of its time. Constructed using selenium and coated with a thin layer of gold, this early solar cell was the first to convert sunlight into electricity, albeit at a low efficiency. The technical specifications of this cell, from its material composition to its operational principles, are not just historical footnotes but are crucial in understanding the evolution of solar panels. This analysis provides an in-depth look at the cell’s design, the choice of materials, and its functionality, offering a glimpse into the early challenges and triumphs in solar cell technology.

Fritts’ selenium solar cell, though primitive by today’s standards, was a monumental step in photovoltaic technology. It laid the foundational principles that would guide future generations of solar technology development. This section, by dissecting the technicalities of the first solar cell, serves as a bridge connecting the past and present of solar technology, underscoring the remarkable journey from Fritts’ rudimentary cell to the sophisticated solar panels of today.



Here are panels installed on a New York City rooftop by Fritts in 1884:
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/sponsored/brief-history-solar-panels-180972006/
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